--- title: "Ultima STARTING case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Ultima STARTING ($0.28) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 81.39% over 27.3K openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ultima-starting rendered: 2026-11-11T19:14Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Ultima STARTING](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ultima-starting) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Ultima STARTING A case on Chicken.gg, first seen 6 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ultima-starting?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ultima-starting?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ultima-starting) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ultima-starting?window=all) Price · $0.28 · 0.56 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 81.39% · 27.3K openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 49.56% ±58.47 1,782 openings 7 days · 81.39% ±25.00 27.3K openings 30 days · 81.39% ±25.00 27.3K openings since tracking started · 81.39% ±25.00 27.3K openings -0.5% 54.0% 108.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ultima-starting?window=24h) | 1,782 | 49.56% ±58.5 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ultima-starting?window=7d) | 27.3K | 81.39% ±25.0 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ultima-starting) | 27.3K | 81.39% ±25.0 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ultima-starting?window=all) | 27.3K | 81.39% ±25.0 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Chicken.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [piggycs](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/piggycs) $0.28 0.56 coins $316 632 coins 1,128x 2026-11-09 00:50 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $0.28 0.56 coins $316 632 coins 1,128x 2026-11-08 22:46 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $0.28 0.56 coins $316 632 coins 1,128x 2026-11-07 18:40 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $0.28 0.56 coins $316 632 coins 1,128x 2026-11-07 03:59 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-autotronic-field-tested) Hidden $0.28 0.56 coins $150 300 coins 535.7x 2026-11-09 17:44 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-autotronic-field-tested) Hidden $0.28 0.56 coins $150 300 coins 535.7x 2026-11-07 18:56 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-autotronic-field-tested) Hidden $0.28 0.56 coins $150 300 coins 535.7x 2026-11-07 10:06 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-autotronic-field-tested) Hidden $0.28 0.56 coins $150 300 coins 535.7x 2026-11-07 00:15 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-autotronic-field-tested) Hidden $0.28 0.56 coins $150 300 coins 535.7x 2026-11-06 23:47 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $0.28 0.56 coins $141 281 coins 502.4x 2026-11-10 20:47 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=ultima-starting) [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $0.28 0.56 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:06 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $0.28 0.56 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:06 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $0.28 0.56 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:06 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $0.28 0.56 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:06 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $0.28 0.56 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:06 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $0.28 0.56 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:06 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $0.28 0.56 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:05 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $0.28 0.56 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:05 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $0.28 0.56 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:05 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $0.28 0.56 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:05 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $316 (1,128x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 81.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $81.39 on average: an expected loss of $18.61 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt