--- title: "Ultimate case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Ultimate ($11.60) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.97% from 13 items with odds, observed 84.92% over 216 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ultimate rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Ultimate](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ultimate) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Ultimate A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ultimate?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ultimate?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ultimate) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ultimate?window=all) Price · $11.60 · 23.2 coins Advertised RTP · 89.97% · EV $10.44 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · 84.92% · 216 openings, odds method Variance · 4.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 82.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 87.18% ±27.64 208 openings 30 days · 84.92% ±27.12 216 openings since tracking started · 84.92% ±27.12 216 openings 57.0% 86.3% 115.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ultimate?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ultimate?window=7d) | 208 | 87.18% ±27.6 | −0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ultimate) | 216 | 84.92% ±27.1 | −0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ultimate?window=all) | 216 | 84.92% ±27.1 | −0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 216 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 100,000 | $2,844 5,688 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $117 235 coins | 11.2% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.93× | | [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $115 230 coins | 11.0% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.46× | | [Souvenir AWP \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $76.94 154 coins | 11.1% | 5 | 3.2 | 1.54× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Emerald Quartz (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $75.09 150 coins | 10.8% | 1 | 3.2 | 0.31× | | [Souvenir XM1014 \| Blue Spruce (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-blue-spruce-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $56.39 113 coins | 10.8% | 8 | 4.3 | 1.85× | | [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) weapon · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 44 | $44.32 88.63 coins | 9.6% | 1 | 4.9 | 0.21× | | [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $22.78 45.56 coins | 7.6% | 8 | 7.6 | 1.06× | | [M249 \| Shipping Forecast (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-shipping-forecast-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $12.53 25.05 coins | 5.4% | 11 | 9.7 | 1.13× | | [AWP \| Atheris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $7.71 15.42 coins | 3.7% | 14 | 10.8 | 1.30× | | [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $6.00 12 coins | 2.9% | 8 | 10.8 | 0.74× | | [MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bulldozer-field-tested) | 10.0% | $3.61 7.22 coins | 3.5% | 18 | 21.6 | 0.83× | | [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-factory-new) | 62.7% | $2.03 4.06 coins | 12.2% | 139 | 135.5 | 1.03× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=ultimate) [M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-factory-new) Hidden $11.60 23.2 coins $2.03 4.06 coins 0.18x 2026-11-10 03:46 UTC [M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-factory-new) [DemonDeeeeek](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/DemonDeeeeek) $11.60 23.2 coins $2.03 4.06 coins 0.18x 2026-11-10 03:46 UTC [M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-factory-new) Hidden $11.60 23.2 coins $2.03 4.06 coins 0.18x 2026-11-10 03:46 UTC [M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-factory-new) Hidden $11.60 23.2 coins $2.03 4.06 coins 0.18x 2026-11-10 03:46 UTC [M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-factory-new) Hidden $11.60 23.2 coins $2.03 4.06 coins 0.18x 2026-11-10 03:46 UTC [M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-factory-new) Hidden $11.60 23.2 coins $2.03 4.06 coins 0.18x 2026-11-10 03:46 UTC [AWP | Atheris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-factory-new) [kvaki](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/kvaki) $11.60 23.2 coins $7.71 15.42 coins 0.66x 2026-11-09 21:42 UTC [M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-factory-new) Hidden $11.60 23.2 coins $2.03 4.06 coins 0.18x 2026-11-09 21:42 UTC [AWP | Atheris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-factory-new) Hidden $11.60 23.2 coins $7.71 15.42 coins 0.66x 2026-11-09 21:42 UTC [M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-factory-new) Hidden $11.60 23.2 coins $2.03 4.06 coins 0.18x 2026-11-09 21:42 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $11.60 | 89.97% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 3.3% mil spec 2.5% Industrial Grade 1.5% consumer 2.0% classified 8.5% #87c7ff 4.5% restricted 67.7% #8847ff 10.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.97 on average: an expected loss of $10.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt