--- title: "UltraViolet case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "UltraViolet ($50.94) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 90.96% over 372 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ultraviolet rendered: 2026-11-11T15:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [UltraViolet](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ultraviolet) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · UltraViolet A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ultraviolet?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ultraviolet?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ultraviolet) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ultraviolet?window=all) Price · $50.94 · 102 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $45.84 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.96% · 372 openings, odds method Variance · 10.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 28 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 76.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 16 openings · below min 7 days · 103.06% ±38.20 280 openings 30 days · 90.96% ±33.14 372 openings since tracking started · 90.96% ±33.14 372 openings -0.5% 88.0% 176.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ultraviolet?window=24h) | 16 | 16.18% ±159.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ultraviolet?window=7d) | 280 | 103.06% ±38.2 | +0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ultraviolet) | 372 | 90.96% ±33.1 | +0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ultraviolet?window=all) | 372 | 90.96% ±33.1 | +0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 396 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,481 4,962 coins | 5.4% | 2 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $1,824 3,649 coins | 8.0% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $1,551 3,102 coins | 6.8% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $984 1,967 coins | 10.7% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.51× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $564 1,129 coins | 12.3% | 3 | 4.0 | 0.76× | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 63 | $375 749 coins | 13.1% | 10 | 6.3 | 1.58× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $153 307 coins | 8.4% | 7 | 9.9 | 0.71× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $130 260 coins | 7.1% | 6 | 9.9 | 0.61× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $88.90 178 coins | 4.8% | 11 | 9.9 | 1.11× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $85.39 171 coins | 5.6% | 15 | 11.9 | 1.26× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $69.38 139 coins | 4.5% | 10 | 11.9 | 0.84× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $61.31 123 coins | 4.0% | 8 | 11.9 | 0.67× | | [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $55.37 111 coins | 3.6% | 10 | 11.9 | 0.84× | | [MAC-10 \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $22.29 44.58 coins | 2.4% | 23 | 19.8 | 1.16× | | [SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $12.90 25.79 coins | 1.7% | 23 | 23.8 | 0.97× | | [MAC-10 \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 65.9% | $1.09 2.17 coins | 1.6% | 267 | 261.0 | 1.02× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-ultraviolet-factory-new) Hidden $50.94 102 coins $2,481 4,962 coins 48.71x 2026-11-10 12:17 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-ultraviolet-factory-new) Hidden $50.94 102 coins $2,481 4,962 coins 48.71x 2026-11-06 06:36 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-ultraviolet-factory-new) Hidden $50.94 102 coins $984 1,967 coins 19.31x 2026-11-04 18:10 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $50.94 102 coins $564 1,129 coins 11.08x 2026-11-05 23:08 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) [IronSnipe5217](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/IronSnipe5217) $50.94 102 coins $564 1,129 coins 11.08x 2026-11-04 18:15 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $50.94 102 coins $564 1,129 coins 11.08x 2026-11-04 18:14 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=ultraviolet) [MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $50.94 102 coins $1.09 2.17 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 07:47 UTC [MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $50.94 102 coins $1.09 2.17 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 07:47 UTC [MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $50.94 102 coins $1.09 2.17 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 07:47 UTC [MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $50.94 102 coins $1.09 2.17 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 07:47 UTC [MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $50.94 102 coins $1.09 2.17 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 07:47 UTC [MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $50.94 102 coins $1.09 2.17 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 07:47 UTC [MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $50.94 102 coins $1.09 2.17 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 07:47 UTC [MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $50.94 102 coins $1.09 2.17 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 07:47 UTC [MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $50.94 102 coins $1.09 2.17 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 07:47 UTC [MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $50.94 102 coins $1.09 2.17 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 07:47 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $50.94 | 90.00% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 12.5% Covert 2.1% sunny 2.5% #ffd700 3.0% mil spec 68.9% #4b69ff 5.0% Rare 6.0% best hit $2,481 (48.71x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt