---
title: "Undercover case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Undercover ($12.77) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.97% from 16 items with odds, observed 74.39% over 1,777 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/undercover
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:33Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Undercover](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/undercover)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Undercover

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/undercover?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/undercover?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/undercover) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/undercover?window=all)

Price · $12.77 · 25.54 coins

Advertised RTP · 89.97% · EV $11.49 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 74.39% · 1,777 openings, odds method

Variance · 20.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 18 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 79.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 62.00% ±81.12 118 openings

7 days · 75.88% ±21.66 1,655 openings

30 days · 74.39% ±20.90 1,777 openings

since tracking started · 74.39% ±20.90 1,777 openings

-0.5% 71.8% 144.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/undercover?window=24h) | 118 | 62.00% ±81.1 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/undercover?window=7d) | 1,655 | 75.88% ±21.7 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/undercover) | 1,777 | 74.39% ±20.9 | −1.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/undercover?window=all) | 1,777 | 74.39% ±20.9 | −1.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,777 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · Knives · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,505 3,010 coins | 6.5% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [Sticker \| NiKo (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-niko-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 1,250 | $1,253 2,507 coins | 8.7% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $685 1,371 coins | 6.0% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.13× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-emperor-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $250 500 coins | 8.7% | 8 | 7.1 | 1.13× |
| [Souvenir P2000 \| Granite Marbleized (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p2000-granite-marbleized-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $122 244 coins | 8.5% | 11 | 14.2 | 0.77× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $77.84 156 coins | 6.8% | 12 | 17.8 | 0.68× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) weapon · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 33 | $44.32 88.63 coins | 11.6% | 59 | 53.3 | 1.11× |
| [AWP \| Corticera (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $25.31 50.62 coins | 8.8% | 66 | 71.1 | 0.93× |
| [FAMAS \| Contrast Spray (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-contrast-spray-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $24.98 49.95 coins | 10.9% | 82 | 88.9 | 0.92× |
| [Galil AR \| Shattered (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-shattered-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $13.86 27.71 coins | 7.2% | 114 | 106.6 | 1.07× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $9.27 18.53 coins | 5.6% | 120 | 124.4 | 0.96× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $6.76 13.51 coins | 4.7% | 150 | 142.2 | 1.06× |
| [Tec-9 \| Orange Murano (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-orange-murano-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $4.61 9.21 coins | 3.6% | 153 | 159.9 | 0.96× |
| [MP5-SD \| Bamboo Garden (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-bamboo-garden-factory-new) | 10.0% | $2.04 4.07 coins | 1.8% | 182 | 177.7 | 1.02× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-field-tested) | 11.0% | $0.55 1.09 coins | 0.5% | 206 | 195.5 | 1.05× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Sand Mesh (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-sand-mesh-factory-new) | 34.6% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 612 | 614.3 | 1.00× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Blue Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $12.77 25.54 coins $685 1,371 coins 53.68x 2026-11-06 20:55 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Blue Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $12.77 25.54 coins $685 1,371 coins 53.68x 2026-11-04 22:04 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=undercover)

[CZ75-Auto | Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-field-tested) Hidden $12.77 25.54 coins $0.55 1.09 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 16:39 UTC

[Galil AR | Shattered (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-shattered-factory-new) Hidden $12.77 25.54 coins $13.86 27.71 coins 1.08x 2026-11-11 16:39 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Sand Mesh (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-sand-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $12.77 25.54 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:39 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-field-tested) Hidden $12.77 25.54 coins $0.55 1.09 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 16:39 UTC

[MP5-SD | Bamboo Garden (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-bamboo-garden-factory-new) Hidden $12.77 25.54 coins $2.04 4.07 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 16:39 UTC

[Tec-9 | Orange Murano (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-orange-murano-factory-new) Hidden $12.77 25.54 coins $4.61 9.21 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 16:39 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Sand Mesh (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-sand-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $12.77 25.54 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 08:18 UTC

[Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) weapon · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $12.77 25.54 coins $44.32 88.63 coins 3.47x 2026-11-11 08:18 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-field-tested) Hidden $12.77 25.54 coins $0.55 1.09 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 08:18 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Sand Mesh (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-sand-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $12.77 25.54 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 08:18 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $12.77 | 89.97% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Knives 0.1% other 0.9% covert knife 0.1% covert 3.4% red 8.0% classified 12.0% consumer 39.6% blue 6.0% Industrial Grade 9.0% Consumer Grade 10.0% restricted 11.0% best hit $685 (53.68x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.97 on average: an expected loss of $10.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt