--- title: "Underworld case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Underworld ($28.27) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 8 items with odds, observed 67.05% over 34 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/underworld rendered: 2026-11-11T14:03Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Underworld](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/underworld) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Underworld A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/underworld?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/underworld?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/underworld) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/underworld?window=all) Price · $28.27 · 56.54 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $25.44 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 67.05% · 34 openings, odds method Variance · 4.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 60.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 26 openings · below min 30 days · 34 openings · below min since tracking started · 34 openings · below min -0.5% 76.3% 153.0% **Small sample.** 34 openings and 2.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/underworld?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/underworld?window=7d) | 26 | 73.35% ±79.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/underworld) | 34 | 67.05% ±69.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/underworld?window=all) | 34 | 67.05% ±69.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 34 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 100 | $513 1,025 coins | 20.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $147 294 coins | 11.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Nitro (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-nitro-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $132 263 coins | 10.3% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $129 258 coins | 10.1% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-factory-new) | 33.0% | $29.07 58.14 coins | 37.7% | 15 | 11.2 | 1.34× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Victoria (Factory New) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-victoria-factory-new) | 20.0% | $7.60 15.19 coins | 6.0% | 7 | 6.8 | 1.03× | | [AK-47 \| Slate (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-factory-new) | 20.0% | $5.22 10.44 coins | 4.1% | 5 | 6.8 | 0.74× | | [AUG \| Tom Cat (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-tom-cat-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.02 0.04 coins | 0.0% | 6 | 6.8 | 0.88× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=underworld) [M4A1-S | Moss Quartz (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-factory-new) Hidden $28.27 56.54 coins $29.07 58.14 coins 1.03x 2026-11-07 18:34 UTC [AK-47 | Slate (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-factory-new) Hidden $28.27 56.54 coins $5.22 10.44 coins 0.18x 2026-11-07 18:34 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-victoria-factory-new) Hidden $28.27 56.54 coins $7.60 15.19 coins 0.27x 2026-11-07 18:34 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Scorched (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-scorched-factory-new) [axel02legmail](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/axel02legmail) $28.27 56.54 coins $129 258 coins 4.56x 2026-11-07 18:34 UTC [M4A1-S | Moss Quartz (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-factory-new) Hidden $28.27 56.54 coins $29.07 58.14 coins 1.03x 2026-11-07 17:59 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-victoria-factory-new) Hidden $28.27 56.54 coins $7.60 15.19 coins 0.27x 2026-11-07 17:59 UTC [M4A1-S | Moss Quartz (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-factory-new) Hidden $28.27 56.54 coins $29.07 58.14 coins 1.03x 2026-11-07 17:59 UTC [M4A1-S | Moss Quartz (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-factory-new) Hidden $28.27 56.54 coins $29.07 58.14 coins 1.03x 2026-11-07 17:59 UTC [M4A1-S | Moss Quartz (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-factory-new) Hidden $28.27 56.54 coins $29.07 58.14 coins 1.03x 2026-11-07 17:59 UTC [M4A1-S | Moss Quartz (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-factory-new) Hidden $28.27 56.54 coins $29.07 58.14 coins 1.03x 2026-11-07 17:59 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $28.27 | 89.99% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.0% Immortal 2.0% other 2.0% knifes 2.0% industrial 33.0% #eb4b4b 20.0% restricted 20.0% Mil Spec Grade 20.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt