---
title: "Unlovable case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Unlovable ($99.60) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 51.72% over 16 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/unlovable
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:29Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Unlovable](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/unlovable)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Unlovable

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/unlovable?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/unlovable?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/unlovable) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/unlovable?window=all)

Price · $99.60 · 199 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $89.64 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 51.72% · 16 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 78.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 8 openings · below min

30 days · 16 openings · below min

since tracking started · 16 openings · below min

-0.5% 87.5% 175.5%

**Small sample.** 16 openings and 1.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/unlovable?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/unlovable?window=7d) | 8 | 19.17% ±155.9 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/unlovable) | 16 | 51.72% ±110.2 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/unlovable?window=all) | 16 | 51.72% ±110.2 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 10,000 | $6,327 12,654 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 2,000 | $2,845 5,691 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,112 4,224 coins | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 200 | $1,358 2,716 coins | 7.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 100 | $1,018 2,037 coins | 11.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 43 | $755 1,510 coins | 19.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 17 | $406 812 coins | 27.2% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $162 323 coins | 10.8% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $117 235 coins | 7.9% | 3 | 1.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $79.44 159 coins | 5.3% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $37.48 74.96 coins | 2.9% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $22.44 44.87 coins | 1.8% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.79× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Black Limba (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-black-limba-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $5.33 10.65 coins | 0.4% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.79× |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $3.41 6.82 coins | 0.3% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.79× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Stone Mosaico (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-stone-mosaico-field-tested) | 22.0% | $0.76 1.51 coins | 0.2% | 5 | 3.5 | 1.42× |
| [MP9 \| Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) | 22.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 1 | 3.5 | 0.28× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=unlovable)

[SCAR-20 | Stone Mosaico (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-stone-mosaico-field-tested) Hidden $99.60 199 coins $0.76 1.51 coins 0.01x 2026-11-08 05:13 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Stone Mosaico (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-stone-mosaico-field-tested) Hidden $99.60 199 coins $0.76 1.51 coins 0.01x 2026-11-08 05:13 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Black Limba (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-black-limba-field-tested) Hidden $99.60 199 coins $5.33 10.65 coins 0.05x 2026-11-08 05:13 UTC

[MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) [foul](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/foul) $99.60 199 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 05:13 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Stone Mosaico (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-stone-mosaico-field-tested) Hidden $99.60 199 coins $0.76 1.51 coins 0.01x 2026-11-08 05:12 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Black Limba (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-black-limba-field-tested) Hidden $99.60 199 coins $5.33 10.65 coins 0.05x 2026-11-08 05:12 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $99.60 199 coins $117 235 coins 1.18x 2026-11-08 05:12 UTC

[AK-47 | Black Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-field-tested) [foul](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/foul) $99.60 199 coins $22.44 44.87 coins 0.23x 2026-11-08 05:12 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $99.60 | 90.00% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed #EB4B4B 0.1% extraordinary 6.1% covert 15.8% Covert 6.0% restricted 7.0% mil spec 21.0% Consumer Grade 22.0% milspec 22.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt