--- title: "Upgrader case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Upgrader ($5.19) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.95% from 8 items with odds, observed 94.57% over 511 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/upgrader rendered: 2026-11-11T16:47Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Upgrader](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/upgrader) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Upgrader A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/upgrader?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/upgrader?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/upgrader) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/upgrader?window=all) Price · $5.19 · 10.37 coins Advertised RTP · 89.95% · EV $4.66 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 94.57% · 511 openings, odds method Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 23.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 77.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 20 openings · below min 7 days · 97.25% ±11.14 430 openings 30 days · 94.57% ±10.22 511 openings since tracking started · 94.57% ±10.22 511 openings 69.0% 121.2% 173.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/upgrader?window=24h) | 20 | 121.20% ±51.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/upgrader?window=7d) | 430 | 97.25% ±11.1 | +1.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/upgrader) | 511 | 94.57% ±10.2 | +0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/upgrader?window=all) | 511 | 94.57% ±10.2 | +0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 511 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Groundwater (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-groundwater-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $50.13 100 coins | 10.7% | 6 | 5.1 | 1.17× | | [SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $25.16 50.31 coins | 10.8% | 13 | 10.2 | 1.27× | | [MAC-10 \| Toybox (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-toybox-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $10.02 20.04 coins | 10.7% | 24 | 25.6 | 0.94× | | [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-factory-new) | 15.0% | $7.51 15.01 coins | 24.1% | 90 | 76.6 | 1.17× | | [G3SG1 \| Demeter (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-demeter-field-tested) | 25.0% | $5.02 10.04 coins | 26.9% | 113 | 127.8 | 0.88× | | [MAC-10 \| Aloha (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-aloha-factory-new) | 20.0% | $2.53 5.06 coins | 10.8% | 98 | 102.2 | 0.96× | | [Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-boost-protocol-minimal-wear) | 14.5% | $1.26 2.52 coins | 3.9% | 82 | 74.1 | 1.11× | | [AUG \| Ricochet (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-ricochet-factory-new) | 17.5% | $0.51 1.02 coins | 1.9% | 85 | 89.4 | 0.95× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=upgrader) [Five-SeveN | Boost Protocol (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-boost-protocol-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.19 10.37 coins $1.26 2.52 coins 0.24x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC [AUG | Ricochet (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-ricochet-factory-new) Hidden $5.19 10.37 coins $0.51 1.02 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC [MAC-10 | Aloha (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-aloha-factory-new) Hidden $5.19 10.37 coins $2.53 5.06 coins 0.49x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC [G3SG1 | Demeter (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-demeter-field-tested) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $5.19 10.37 coins $5.02 10.04 coins 0.97x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC [Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-factory-new) Hidden $5.19 10.37 coins $7.51 15.01 coins 1.45x 2026-11-10 22:30 UTC [G3SG1 | Demeter (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-demeter-field-tested) Hidden $5.19 10.37 coins $5.02 10.04 coins 0.97x 2026-11-10 22:30 UTC [MAC-10 | Toybox (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-toybox-factory-new) Hidden $5.19 10.37 coins $10.02 20.04 coins 1.93x 2026-11-10 22:30 UTC [Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-factory-new) Hidden $5.19 10.37 coins $7.51 15.01 coins 1.45x 2026-11-10 22:30 UTC [Souvenir Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-groundwater-factory-new) Hidden $5.19 10.37 coins $50.13 100 coins 9.67x 2026-11-10 22:30 UTC [Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-factory-new) Hidden $5.19 10.37 coins $7.51 15.01 coins 1.45x 2026-11-10 22:30 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5.19 | 89.95% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Industrial Grade 1.0% Rare 2.0% classified 5.0% covert 15.0% mil spec 62.5% restricted 14.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.95 on average: an expected loss of $10.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt