--- title: "Valentine case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Valentine ($11.07) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 12 items with odds, observed 93.18% over 1,761 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/valentine rendered: 2026-11-11T17:12Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Valentine](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/valentine) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Valentine A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/valentine?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/valentine?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/valentine) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/valentine?window=all) Price · $11.07 · 22.13 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $9.96 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.18% · 1,761 openings, odds method Variance · 16.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 26 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 89.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 58.00% ±56.60 194 openings 7 days · 92.12% ±20.74 1,445 openings 30 days · 93.18% ±18.79 1,761 openings since tracking started · 93.18% ±18.79 1,761 openings 1.0% 58.0% 115.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/valentine?window=24h) | 194 | 58.00% ±56.6 | −1.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/valentine?window=7d) | 1,445 | 92.12% ±20.7 | +0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/valentine) | 1,761 | 93.18% ±18.8 | +0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/valentine?window=all) | 1,761 | 93.18% ±18.8 | +0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,761 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,197 2,393 coins | 2.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,119 2,238 coins | 2.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,080 2,161 coins | 2.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,032 2,063 coins | 2.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,010 2,020 coins | 2.0% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $155 309 coins | 15.5% | 25 | 17.6 | 1.42× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $153 307 coins | 15.4% | 23 | 17.6 | 1.31× | | [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 56 | $86.27 173 coins | 15.3% | 36 | 31.2 | 1.15× | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-candy-apple-field-tested) | 1 in 56 | $85.61 171 coins | 15.2% | 27 | 31.2 | 0.87× | | [Souvenir MP9 \| Hot Rod (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 56 | $59.10 118 coins | 10.5% | 33 | 31.2 | 1.06× | | [Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $56.28 113 coins | 17.0% | 42 | 52.8 | 0.80× | | [SCAR-20 \| Poultrygeist (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-field-tested) | 89.6% | $0.01 0.03 coins | 0.1% | 1,574 | 1577.7 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $11.07 22.13 coins $1,010 2,020 coins 91.28x 2026-11-06 00:38 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=valentine) [SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-field-tested) Hidden $11.07 22.13 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:26 UTC [SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-field-tested) Hidden $11.07 22.13 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:26 UTC [SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-field-tested) [GrimViper3313](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/GrimViper3313) $11.07 22.13 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:26 UTC [SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-field-tested) Hidden $11.07 22.13 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:26 UTC [SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-field-tested) Hidden $11.07 22.13 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:26 UTC [SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-field-tested) Hidden $11.07 22.13 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:26 UTC [SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-field-tested) Hidden $11.07 22.13 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:26 UTC [SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-field-tested) Hidden $11.07 22.13 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:26 UTC [SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-field-tested) Hidden $11.07 22.13 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 05:42 UTC [SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-field-tested) Hidden $11.07 22.13 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 05:42 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $11.07 | 89.99% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 2.8% extraordinary 0.0% epic 0.0% sunny 1.0% mil spec 3.5% restricted 3.0% #4b69ff 89.6% best hit $1,010 (91.28x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt