---
title: "Vault Heist case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Vault Heist ($5.19) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.95% from 16 items with odds, observed 102.98% over 1,865 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/vault-heist
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:59Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Vault Heist](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/vault-heist)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Vault Heist

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/vault-heist?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/vault-heist?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/vault-heist) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/vault-heist?window=all)

Price · $5.19 · 10.38 coins

Advertised RTP · 89.95% · EV $4.67 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 102.98% · 1,865 openings, odds method

Variance · 9.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 77.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 70.36% ±56.26 116 openings

7 days · 107.68% ±15.62 1,504 openings

30 days · 102.98% ±14.03 1,865 openings

since tracking started · 102.98% ±14.03 1,865 openings

13.5% 70.5% 127.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/vault-heist?window=24h) | 116 | 70.36% ±56.3 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/vault-heist?window=7d) | 1,504 | 107.68% ±15.6 | +2.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/vault-heist) | 1,865 | 102.98% ±14.0 | +1.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/vault-heist?window=all) | 1,865 | 102.98% ±14.0 | +1.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,865 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Souvenir M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-eye-of-horus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,383 2,766 coins | 1.5% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $818 1,635 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $514 1,027 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $259 519 coins | 1.1% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Daybreak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-daybreak-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $183 365 coins | 1.6% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Desert Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $34.17 68.34 coins | 29.3% | 70 | 74.6 | 0.94× |
| [P250 \| Gunsmoke (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-gunsmoke-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $19.17 38.33 coins | 16.4% | 82 | 74.6 | 1.10× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Mosaico (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-mosaico-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $14.82 29.64 coins | 9.5% | 71 | 55.9 | 1.27× |
| [MP9 \| Dry Season (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dry-season-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $11.19 22.38 coins | 7.2% | 49 | 55.9 | 0.88× |
| [P250 \| Black & Tan (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-black-and-tan-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $9.51 19.01 coins | 4.1% | 32 | 37.3 | 0.86× |
| [Negev \| CaliCamo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-calicamo-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $6.57 13.14 coins | 2.8% | 25 | 37.3 | 0.67× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $6.37 12.73 coins | 2.7% | 34 | 37.3 | 0.91× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Contractor (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-contractor-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $5.52 11.03 coins | 2.4% | 42 | 37.3 | 1.13× |
| [UMP-45 \| Gold Bismuth (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $3.34 6.67 coins | 1.4% | 36 | 37.3 | 0.97× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Breaker Box (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-breaker-box-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $1.92 3.84 coins | 0.8% | 50 | 37.3 | 1.34× |
| [MP7 \| Vault Heist (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-vault-heist-field-tested) | 73.9% | $1.06 2.11 coins | 16.7% | 1,371 | 1378.6 | 0.99× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Souvenir M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-eye-of-horus-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.19 10.38 coins $1,383 2,766 coins 266.5x 2026-11-09 23:57 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=vault-heist)

[MP7 | Vault Heist (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-vault-heist-field-tested) Hidden $5.19 10.38 coins $1.06 2.11 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 14:14 UTC

[MP7 | Vault Heist (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-vault-heist-field-tested) Hidden $5.19 10.38 coins $1.06 2.11 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 14:14 UTC

[MP9 | Dry Season (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dry-season-factory-new) Hidden $5.19 10.38 coins $11.19 22.38 coins 2.16x 2026-11-11 14:14 UTC

[Negev | CaliCamo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-calicamo-factory-new) Hidden $5.19 10.38 coins $6.57 13.14 coins 1.27x 2026-11-11 14:14 UTC

[MP7 | Vault Heist (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-vault-heist-field-tested) Hidden $5.19 10.38 coins $1.06 2.11 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 14:14 UTC

[MP7 | Vault Heist (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-vault-heist-field-tested) Hidden $5.19 10.38 coins $1.06 2.11 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 14:14 UTC

[MP7 | Vault Heist (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-vault-heist-field-tested) Hidden $5.19 10.38 coins $1.06 2.11 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 14:14 UTC

[MP7 | Vault Heist (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-vault-heist-field-tested) [BG2x](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/BG2x) $5.19 10.38 coins $1.06 2.11 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 14:14 UTC

[MP7 | Vault Heist (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-vault-heist-field-tested) Hidden $5.19 10.38 coins $1.06 2.11 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 14:12 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Mosaico (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-mosaico-factory-new) Hidden $5.19 10.38 coins $14.82 29.64 coins 2.86x 2026-11-11 14:12 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5.19 | 89.95% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Covert 0.0% covert 0.0% covert knife 0.0% knifes 0.0% restricted 0.0% industrial 13.0% consumer 5.0% milspec 2.0% classified 2.0% #8847ff 2.0% #87c7ff 2.0% Uncommon 73.9% best hit $1,383 (266.5x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.95 on average: an expected loss of $10.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt