---
title: "Vault X case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Vault X ($20.98) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 12 items with odds, observed 71.93% over 280 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/vault-x
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:23Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Vault X](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/vault-x)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Vault X

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/vault-x?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/vault-x?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/vault-x) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/vault-x?window=all)

Price · $20.98 · 41.95 coins

Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $18.88 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 71.93% · 280 openings, odds method

Variance · 31.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 83 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 97.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 5 openings · below min

7 days · 148 openings · below min

30 days · 280 openings · below min

since tracking started · 280 openings · below min

-0.5% 248.3% 497.0%

**Small sample.** 280 openings and 3.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/vault-x?window=24h) | 5 | 5.74% ±490.6 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/vault-x?window=7d) | 148 | 36.51% ±90.2 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/vault-x) | 280 | 71.93% ±65.6 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/vault-x?window=all) | 280 | 71.93% ±65.6 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 280 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Souvenir SG 553 \| Integrale (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-integrale-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,296 2,593 coins | 6.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-field-agent-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,252 2,504 coins | 6.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,241 2,481 coins | 6.6% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $1,113 2,226 coins | 8.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 667 | $1,035 2,071 coins | 8.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $615 1,230 coins | 9.8% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [Charm \| Lil' Monster charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-monster) | 1 in 333 | $606 1,211 coins | 9.6% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 333 | $603 1,206 coins | 9.6% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $564 1,129 coins | 12.0% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 167 | $462 923 coins | 14.7% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.79× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) | 25.0% | $4.00 8 coins | 5.3% | 72 | 70.0 | 1.03× |
| [MP9 \| Dart (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dart-factory-new) | 72.5% | $0.51 1.01 coins | 1.9% | 202 | 203.0 | 1.00× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-boreal-forest-factory-new) Hidden $20.98 41.95 coins $1,241 2,481 coins 59.15x 2026-11-04 00:44 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Monster charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-monster) Hidden $20.98 41.95 coins $606 1,211 coins 28.87x 2026-11-03 19:07 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $20.98 41.95 coins $603 1,206 coins 28.76x 2026-11-03 19:07 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=vault-x)

[MP9 | Dart (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dart-factory-new) Hidden $20.98 41.95 coins $0.51 1.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 21:52 UTC

[MP9 | Dart (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dart-factory-new) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $20.98 41.95 coins $0.51 1.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 21:52 UTC

[MP9 | Dart (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dart-factory-new) Hidden $20.98 41.95 coins $0.51 1.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 20:07 UTC

[MP9 | Dart (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dart-factory-new) Hidden $20.98 41.95 coins $0.51 1.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 20:07 UTC

[Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $20.98 41.95 coins $4.00 8 coins 0.19x 2026-11-10 20:07 UTC

[Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) Hidden $20.98 41.95 coins $4.00 8 coins 0.19x 2026-11-09 22:55 UTC

[MP9 | Dart (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dart-factory-new) Hidden $20.98 41.95 coins $0.51 1.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-09 22:55 UTC

[MP9 | Dart (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dart-factory-new) Hidden $20.98 41.95 coins $0.51 1.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-09 22:55 UTC

[Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) Hidden $20.98 41.95 coins $4.00 8 coins 0.19x 2026-11-09 22:55 UTC

[Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) Hidden $20.98 41.95 coins $4.00 8 coins 0.19x 2026-11-09 22:55 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $20.98 | 89.99% | 12 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 0.1% extraordinary 0.3% covert 26.4% #EB4B4B 0.1% Covert 0.3% uncommon 0.3% mil spec 72.5% best hit $1,241 (59.15x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt