--- title: "Vault case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Vault ($245.10) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 90.71% over 20 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/vault rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Vault](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/vault) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Vault A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/vault?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/vault?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/vault) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/vault?window=all) Price · $245.10 · 490 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $220.59 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.71% · 20 openings, odds method Variance · 1.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 23.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 56.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 20 openings · below min 30 days · 20 openings · below min since tracking started · 20 openings · below min 36.5% 90.8% 145.0% **Small sample.** 20 openings and 4.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/vault?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/vault?window=7d) | 20 | 90.71% ±53.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/vault) | 20 | 90.71% ±53.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/vault?window=all) | 20 | 90.71% ±53.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Natus Vincere (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 10,000 | $9,909 19,817 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $8,979 17,957 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Reason Gaming \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,000 | $3,097 6,194 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 500 | $2,338 4,676 coins | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $2,012 4,025 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $885 1,770 coins | 4.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 100 | $741 1,483 coins | 3.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $639 1,278 coins | 2.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [MP9 \| Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-factory-new) | 20.0% | $478 956 coins | 43.4% | 7 | 4.0 | 1.75× | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 20.0% | $372 745 coins | 33.8% | 2 | 4.0 | 0.50× | | [Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-factory-new) | 10.0% | $70.92 142 coins | 3.2% | 4 | 2.0 | 2.00× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-stained-field-tested) | 10.0% | $68.47 137 coins | 3.1% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.50× | | [AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $0.97 1.94 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× | | [PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-field-tested) | 10.0% | $0.48 0.96 coins | 0.0% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.50× | | [G3SG1 \| Orange Crash (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-orange-crash-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.17 0.34 coins | 0.0% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.50× | | [Dual Berettas \| Stained (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $0.17 0.33 coins | 0.0% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.54× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=vault) [PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-field-tested) Hidden $245 490 coins $0.48 0.96 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 13:03 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) Hidden $245 490 coins $372 745 coins 1.52x 2026-11-08 13:03 UTC [Desert Eagle | Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-factory-new) Hidden $245 490 coins $70.92 142 coins 0.29x 2026-11-08 13:03 UTC [Desert Eagle | Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-factory-new) [fordtransit](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/fordtransit) $245 490 coins $70.92 142 coins 0.29x 2026-11-08 13:03 UTC [MP9 | Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-factory-new) Hidden $245 490 coins $478 956 coins 1.95x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC [MP9 | Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-factory-new) Hidden $245 490 coins $478 956 coins 1.95x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC [Desert Eagle | Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-factory-new) Hidden $245 490 coins $70.92 142 coins 0.29x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC [MP9 | Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-factory-new) Hidden $245 490 coins $478 956 coins 1.95x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC [Dual Berettas | Stained (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-stained-factory-new) Hidden $245 490 coins $0.17 0.33 coins 0.00x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Stained (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-stained-field-tested) Hidden $245 490 coins $68.47 137 coins 0.28x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $245 | 90.00% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed remarkable 0.0% legendary 0.0% high 0.1% Covert 20.2% covert 2.2% covert knife 1.0% restricted 30.0% classified 10.0% Immortal 10.0% #8847ff 10.0% mil spec 10.0% industrial 6.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt