---
title: "Verified case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Verified ($192.59) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/verified
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:35Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Verified](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/verified)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Verified

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/verified?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/verified?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/verified) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/verified?window=all)

Price · $192.59 · 385 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $173.33 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 39.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 60.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/verified?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/verified?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/verified) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/verified?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sticker \| Team Dignitas (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-dignitas-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 100,000 | $31.6K 63,128 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $7,082 14,163 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 10,000 | $3,592 7,183 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $3,414 6,828 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,385 2,771 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,301 2,602 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $765 1,530 coins | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $760 1,520 coins | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $759 1,518 coins | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $531 1,062 coins | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 100 | $529 1,059 coins | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $528 1,057 coins | 3.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 33.0% | $257 514 coins | 48.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 33.0% | $129 258 coins | 24.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Night (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-factory-new) | 14.0% | $27.98 55.96 coins | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-factory-new) | 13.9% | $5.13 10.26 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=verified)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $193 | 90.00% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed remarkable 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% covert 36.1% legendary 1.1% gold 1.0% Immortal 1.0% #ffd700 33.0% industrial 14.0% classified 13.9%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt