--- title: "Virtus case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Virtus ($42.85) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 16 items with odds, observed 54.83% over 110 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/virtus rendered: 2026-11-11T18:36Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Virtus](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/virtus) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Virtus A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/virtus?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/virtus?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/virtus) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/virtus?window=all) Price · $42.85 · 85.69 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $38.56 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 54.83% · 110 openings, odds method Variance · 13.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 82.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 2 openings · below min 7 days · 110 openings · below min 30 days · 110 openings · below min since tracking started · 110 openings · below min -0.5% 252.3% 505.0% **Small sample.** 110 openings and 4.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/virtus?window=24h) | 2 | 1.17% ±503.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/virtus?window=7d) | 110 | 54.83% ±67.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/virtus) | 110 | 54.83% ±67.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/virtus?window=all) | 110 | 54.83% ±67.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 110 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Virtus.Pro (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 3,333 | $5,306 10,611 coins | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,505 3,010 coins | 3.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $1,301 2,602 coins | 6.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Sticker \| NiKo (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-niko-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 500 | $1,253 2,507 coins | 6.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Blood Pressure (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-blood-pressure-factory-new) | 1 in 213 | $882 1,765 coins | 10.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $379 759 coins | 9.8% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.91× | | [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $279 557 coins | 14.4% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.91× | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 33 | $202 405 coins | 15.7% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.91× | | [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $80.48 161 coins | 8.3% | 1 | 4.4 | 0.23× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $66.94 134 coins | 6.9% | 6 | 4.4 | 1.36× | | [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $51.39 103 coins | 4.0% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.61× | | [SSG 08 \| Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sand-dune-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $25.86 51.71 coins | 3.4% | 8 | 5.5 | 1.45× | | [SCAR-20 \| Magna Carta (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-magna-carta-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $12.62 25.24 coins | 2.0% | 8 | 6.6 | 1.21× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $9.27 18.53 coins | 1.7% | 8 | 7.7 | 1.04× | | [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $3.99 7.98 coins | 0.9% | 11 | 9.9 | 1.11× | | [UMP-45 \| Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) | 55.0% | $0.50 1 coins | 0.7% | 60 | 60.5 | 0.99× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=virtus) [UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) Hidden $42.85 85.69 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 21:52 UTC [UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $42.85 85.69 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 21:52 UTC [UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) Hidden $42.85 85.69 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 16:16 UTC [UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) Hidden $42.85 85.69 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 16:16 UTC [UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) Hidden $42.85 85.69 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 16:16 UTC [UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) Hidden $42.85 85.69 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 16:16 UTC [AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) Hidden $42.85 85.69 coins $3.99 7.98 coins 0.09x 2026-11-10 16:16 UTC [UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) [KocvreKK](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/KocvreKK) $42.85 85.69 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 16:16 UTC [UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) Hidden $42.85 85.69 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 16:15 UTC [UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) Hidden $42.85 85.69 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 16:15 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $42.85 | 89.99% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.6% covert 13.2% other 3.2% covert knife 1.0% consumer 5.0% Mil Spec Grade 6.0% red 7.0% Legendary 9.0% blue 55.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt