--- title: "Vortex case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Vortex ($15.16) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 8 items with odds, observed 79.65% over 1,767 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/vortex rendered: 2026-11-11T19:43Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Vortex](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/vortex) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Vortex A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/vortex?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/vortex?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/vortex) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/vortex?window=all) Price · $15.16 · 30.31 coins Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $13.64 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 79.65% · 1,767 openings, odds method Variance · 26.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 42 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 96.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 87 openings · below min 7 days · 85.69% ±35.63 796 openings 30 days · 79.65% ±23.91 1,767 openings since tracking started · 79.65% ±23.91 1,767 openings -0.5% 76.0% 152.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/vortex?window=24h) | 87 | 44.18% ±107.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/vortex?window=7d) | 796 | 85.69% ±35.6 | −0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/vortex) | 1,767 | 79.65% ±23.9 | −0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/vortex?window=all) | 1,767 | 79.65% ±23.9 | −0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,767 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 83 | $552 1,105 coins | 48.6% | 15 | 21.2 | 0.71× | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 83 | $462 923 coins | 40.6% | 23 | 21.2 | 1.08× | | [SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 83 | $25.16 50.31 coins | 2.2% | 15 | 21.2 | 0.71× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Hexane (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-hexane-factory-new) | 15.0% | $3.30 6.59 coins | 3.6% | 266 | 265.1 | 1.00× | | [Dual Berettas \| Moon in Libra (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-moon-in-libra-field-tested) | 20.0% | $2.01 4.01 coins | 2.9% | 337 | 353.4 | 0.95× | | [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) | 30.0% | $0.68 1.35 coins | 1.5% | 558 | 530.1 | 1.05× | | [FAMAS \| Teardown (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-teardown-factory-new) | 15.0% | $0.41 0.82 coins | 0.5% | 258 | 265.1 | 0.97× | | [Dual Berettas \| Shred (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-shred-field-tested) | 16.4% | $0.05 0.1 coins | 0.1% | 295 | 289.8 | 1.02× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $15.16 30.31 coins $552 1,105 coins 36.44x 2026-11-08 14:06 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $15.16 30.31 coins $552 1,105 coins 36.44x 2026-11-07 18:05 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [kvaki](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/kvaki) $15.16 30.31 coins $552 1,105 coins 36.44x 2026-11-07 17:19 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $15.16 30.31 coins $552 1,105 coins 36.44x 2026-11-07 12:10 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $15.16 30.31 coins $552 1,105 coins 36.44x 2026-11-06 13:14 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $15.16 30.31 coins $552 1,105 coins 36.44x 2026-11-06 00:36 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $15.16 30.31 coins $552 1,105 coins 36.44x 2026-11-05 19:17 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $15.16 30.31 coins $552 1,105 coins 36.44x 2026-11-05 16:18 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $15.16 30.31 coins $552 1,105 coins 36.44x 2026-11-05 16:17 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $15.16 30.31 coins $552 1,105 coins 36.44x 2026-11-04 03:05 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=vortex) [Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) Hidden $15.16 30.31 coins $0.68 1.35 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:58 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $15.16 30.31 coins $462 923 coins 30.46x 2026-11-11 18:58 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Hexane (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-hexane-factory-new) Hidden $15.16 30.31 coins $3.30 6.59 coins 0.22x 2026-11-11 18:58 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Hexane (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-hexane-factory-new) Hidden $15.16 30.31 coins $3.30 6.59 coins 0.22x 2026-11-11 18:58 UTC [Dual Berettas | Moon in Libra (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-moon-in-libra-field-tested) Hidden $15.16 30.31 coins $2.01 4.01 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 18:58 UTC [Dual Berettas | Shred (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-shred-field-tested) Hidden $15.16 30.31 coins $0.05 0.1 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:58 UTC [FAMAS | Teardown (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-teardown-factory-new) Hidden $15.16 30.31 coins $0.41 0.82 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:58 UTC [Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) [BG2x](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/BG2x) $15.16 30.31 coins $0.68 1.35 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:58 UTC [FAMAS | Teardown (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-teardown-factory-new) Hidden $15.16 30.31 coins $0.41 0.82 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:55 UTC [Dual Berettas | Shred (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-shred-field-tested) Hidden $15.16 30.31 coins $0.05 0.1 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:55 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $15.16 | 89.98% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 2.4% Rare 1.2% mil spec 31.4% #777777 20.0% restricted 30.0% #4b69ff 15.0% best hit $552 (36.44x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt