--- title: "Vox Puncher case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Vox Puncher ($1,412.58) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 77.26% over 38 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/vox-puncher rendered: 2026-11-11T21:20Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Vox Puncher](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/vox-puncher) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Vox Puncher A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/vox-puncher?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/vox-puncher?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/vox-puncher) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/vox-puncher?window=all) Price · $1,412.58 · 2,825 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $1,271.32 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 77.26% · 38 openings, odds method Variance · 3.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 12.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 83.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 38 openings · below min 30 days · 38 openings · below min since tracking started · 38 openings · below min 16.5% 77.3% 138.0% **Small sample.** 38 openings and 4.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/vox-puncher?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/vox-puncher?window=7d) | 38 | 77.26% ±60.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/vox-puncher) | 38 | 77.26% ±60.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/vox-puncher?window=all) | 38 | 77.26% ±60.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 38 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Vox Eminor (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 400 | $36.5K 72,902 coins | 7.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $11.7K 23,410 coins | 9.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 100 | $9,900 19,800 coins | 7.8% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $4,962 9,924 coins | 7.8% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $4,761 9,523 coins | 7.5% | 2 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $4,425 8,850 coins | 10.4% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.88× | | [AWP \| Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $4,198 8,395 coins | 9.9% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.88× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $4,097 8,194 coins | 6.4% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [Souvenir M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-eye-of-horus-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $3,920 7,840 coins | 6.2% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $1,213 2,426 coins | 3.8% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.66× | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 33 | $1,201 2,403 coins | 2.8% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.88× | | [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1,182 2,363 coins | 4.6% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.53× | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 17 | $1,170 2,340 coins | 5.5% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 17 | $1,138 2,276 coins | 5.4% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× | | [★ Karambit \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $1,138 2,276 coins | 5.4% | 4 | 2.3 | 1.75× | | [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-field-tested) | 53.8% | $0.49 0.99 coins | 0.0% | 24 | 20.4 | 1.18× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $1,413 2,825 coins $9,900 19,800 coins 7.01x 2026-11-08 23:34 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $1,413 2,825 coins $4,761 9,523 coins 3.37x 2026-11-09 00:05 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $1,413 2,825 coins $4,761 9,523 coins 3.37x 2026-11-05 09:42 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $1,413 2,825 coins $4,425 8,850 coins 3.13x 2026-11-09 23:22 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) Hidden $1,413 2,825 coins $4,198 8,395 coins 2.97x 2026-11-09 23:22 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) Hidden $1,413 2,825 coins $4,097 8,194 coins 2.90x 2026-11-08 23:34 UTC [★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $1,413 2,825 coins $1,213 2,426 coins 0.86x 2026-11-08 23:29 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $1,413 2,825 coins $1,201 2,403 coins 0.85x 2026-11-08 23:34 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $1,413 2,825 coins $1,182 2,363 coins 0.84x 2026-11-08 23:34 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $1,413 2,825 coins $1,170 2,340 coins 0.83x 2026-11-09 00:05 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=vox-puncher) [R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-field-tested) Hidden $1,413 2,825 coins $0.49 0.99 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 23:22 UTC [R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-field-tested) Hidden $1,413 2,825 coins $0.49 0.99 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 23:22 UTC [★ Karambit | Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-ultraviolet-factory-new) [JohnDoe77](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/JohnDoe77) $1,413 2,825 coins $1,138 2,276 coins 0.81x 2026-11-09 23:22 UTC [R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-field-tested) Hidden $1,413 2,825 coins $0.49 0.99 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 23:22 UTC [R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-field-tested) Hidden $1,413 2,825 coins $0.49 0.99 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 23:22 UTC [R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-field-tested) Hidden $1,413 2,825 coins $0.49 0.99 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 23:22 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $1,413 2,825 coins $4,425 8,850 coins 3.13x 2026-11-09 23:22 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) Hidden $1,413 2,825 coins $4,198 8,395 coins 2.97x 2026-11-09 23:22 UTC [R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-field-tested) Hidden $1,413 2,825 coins $0.49 0.99 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 00:05 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $1,413 2,825 coins $4,761 9,523 coins 3.37x 2026-11-09 00:05 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1,413 | 90.00% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.3% extraordinary 1.0% covert 29.0% contraband 2.0% knifes 3.0% restricted 5.0% Covert 6.0% classified 53.8% best hit $9,900 (7.01x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt