--- title: "War case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "War ($4.07) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.95% from 14 items with odds, observed 104.07% over 1,485 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/war rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [War](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/war) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · War A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/war?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/war?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/war) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/war?window=all) Price · $4.07 · 8.13 coins Advertised RTP · 89.95% · EV $3.66 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 104.07% · 1,485 openings, odds method Variance · 10.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 113.73% ±37.20 288 openings 7 days · 105.46% ±18.14 1,211 openings 30 days · 104.07% ±16.38 1,485 openings since tracking started · 104.07% ±16.38 1,485 openings 76.0% 113.8% 151.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/war?window=24h) | 288 | 113.73% ±37.2 | +1.3σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/war?window=7d) | 1,211 | 105.46% ±18.1 | +1.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/war) | 1,485 | 104.07% ±16.4 | +1.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/war?window=all) | 1,485 | 104.07% ±16.4 | +1.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,485 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Gut Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $66.38 133 coins | 36.3% | 40 | 29.7 | 1.35× | | [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $61.60 123 coins | 33.7% | 37 | 29.7 | 1.25× | | [SSG 08 \| Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sand-dune-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $25.86 51.71 coins | 14.1% | 21 | 29.7 | 0.71× | | [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $22.86 45.72 coins | 6.3% | 13 | 14.8 | 0.88× | | [M249 \| Jungle DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-jungle-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $11.24 22.47 coins | 3.1% | 15 | 14.8 | 1.01× | | [MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-nuclear-garden-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $6.71 13.42 coins | 1.8% | 15 | 14.8 | 1.01× | | [P250 \| Vino Primo (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-vino-primo-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $6.15 12.3 coins | 1.7% | 10 | 14.8 | 0.67× | | [Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-boost-protocol-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $2.09 4.17 coins | 0.6% | 21 | 14.8 | 1.41× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Twist (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-twist-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $1.61 3.22 coins | 0.4% | 8 | 14.8 | 0.54× | | [FAMAS \| Cyanospatter (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $0.53 1.05 coins | 0.3% | 44 | 29.7 | 1.48× | | [Charm \| Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) | 1 in 50 | $0.50 1 coins | 0.3% | 32 | 29.7 | 1.08× | | [SSG 08 \| Mainframe 001 (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mainframe-001-factory-new) | 20.0% | $0.21 0.43 coins | 1.2% | 312 | 297.0 | 1.05× | | [Sawed-Off \| Morris (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-morris-field-tested) | 32.0% | $0.03 0.05 coins | 0.2% | 476 | 475.2 | 1.00× | | [FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) | 32.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 441 | 475.2 | 0.93× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=war) [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $4.07 8.13 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $4.07 8.13 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $4.07 8.13 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $4.07 8.13 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $4.07 8.13 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-factory-new) Hidden $4.07 8.13 coins $0.53 1.05 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mainframe-001-factory-new) Hidden $4.07 8.13 coins $0.21 0.43 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [Sawed-Off | Morris (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-morris-field-tested) [BG2x](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/BG2x) $4.07 8.13 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.07 8.13 coins $66.38 133 coins 16.33x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [Sawed-Off | Morris (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-morris-field-tested) Hidden $4.07 8.13 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.07 | 89.95% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 5.0% consumer 3.0% mil spec 33.0% violet 1.0% Mythical 1.0% Rare 1.0% #87c7ff 2.0% #4b69ff 34.0% milspec 20.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.95 on average: an expected loss of $10.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt