---
title: "Warning case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Warning ($15.71) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 16 items with odds, observed 84.50% over 302 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/warning
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Warning](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/warning)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Warning

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/warning?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/warning?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/warning) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/warning?window=all)

Price · $15.71 · 31.42 coins

Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $14.14 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.50% · 302 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 40 openings · below min

7 days · 81.55% ±26.16 296 openings

30 days · 84.50% ±25.90 302 openings

since tracking started · 84.50% ±25.90 302 openings

4.5% 76.5% 148.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/warning?window=24h) | 40 | 76.46% ±71.2 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/warning?window=7d) | 296 | 81.55% ±26.2 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/warning) | 302 | 84.50% ±25.9 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/warning?window=all) | 302 | 84.50% ±25.9 | −0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 302 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $755 1,509 coins | 5.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $204 409 coins | 7.2% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.66× |
| [SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-hazard-pay-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $130 259 coins | 18.3% | 6 | 6.0 | 0.99× |
| [SG 553 \| Bulldozer (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bulldozer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $91.44 183 coins | 16.2% | 7 | 7.6 | 0.93× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Transport (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-transport-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $48.14 96.27 coins | 10.2% | 6 | 9.1 | 0.66× |
| [Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $39.17 78.34 coins | 8.3% | 13 | 9.1 | 1.43× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Palm (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-palm-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $24.29 48.58 coins | 5.2% | 9 | 9.1 | 0.99× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Jungle (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-jungle-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $17.64 35.28 coins | 6.2% | 19 | 15.1 | 1.26× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Marina (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-factory-new) | 10.0% | $14.33 28.65 coins | 10.1% | 32 | 30.2 | 1.06× |
| [P90 \| Shapewood (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-factory-new) | 10.0% | $7.37 14.74 coins | 5.2% | 32 | 30.2 | 1.06× |
| [MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bulldozer-field-tested) | 10.0% | $3.61 7.22 coins | 2.6% | 37 | 30.2 | 1.23× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Chemical Green (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-chemical-green-factory-new) | 10.0% | $3.04 6.08 coins | 2.2% | 37 | 30.2 | 1.23× |
| [P250 \| Wingshot (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $2.83 5.65 coins | 1.0% | 6 | 15.1 | 0.40× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $2.64 5.27 coins | 0.9% | 11 | 15.1 | 0.73× |
| [G3SG1 \| Orange Kimono (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-orange-kimono-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $2.21 4.41 coins | 0.8% | 18 | 15.1 | 1.19× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-jungle-slipstream-factory-new) | 25.9% | $0.13 0.26 coins | 0.2% | 68 | 78.2 | 0.87× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=warning)

[PP-Bizon | Chemical Green (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-chemical-green-factory-new) Hidden $15.71 31.42 coins $3.04 6.08 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 09:58 UTC

[P90 | Shapewood (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-factory-new) Hidden $15.71 31.42 coins $7.37 14.74 coins 0.47x 2026-11-11 09:58 UTC

[P250 | Wingshot (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-factory-new) Hidden $15.71 31.42 coins $2.83 5.65 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 09:42 UTC

[MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bulldozer-field-tested) Hidden $15.71 31.42 coins $3.61 7.22 coins 0.23x 2026-11-11 09:42 UTC

[P90 | Shapewood (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-factory-new) Hidden $15.71 31.42 coins $7.37 14.74 coins 0.47x 2026-11-11 09:42 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Marina (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-factory-new) Hidden $15.71 31.42 coins $14.33 28.65 coins 0.91x 2026-11-11 09:42 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-jungle-slipstream-factory-new) Hidden $15.71 31.42 coins $0.13 0.26 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 09:42 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-jungle-slipstream-factory-new) [chakhna](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/chakhna) $15.71 31.42 coins $0.13 0.26 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 09:42 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Chemical Green (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-chemical-green-factory-new) Hidden $15.71 31.42 coins $3.04 6.08 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 09:41 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-jungle-slipstream-factory-new) Hidden $15.71 31.42 coins $0.13 0.26 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 09:41 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $15.71 | 89.98% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.6% #d32ee6 2.0% restricted 15.5% extraordinary 3.0% Uncommon 3.0% Consumer Grade 5.0% classified 15.0% #8847ff 10.0% industrial 10.0% violet 5.0% consumer 5.0% Rare 25.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt