--- title: "Warpath case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Warpath ($5.33) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.95% from 8 items with odds, observed 77.57% over 395 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/warpath rendered: 2026-11-11T17:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Warpath](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/warpath) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Warpath A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/warpath?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/warpath?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/warpath) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/warpath?window=all) Price · $5.33 · 10.66 coins Advertised RTP · 89.95% · EV $4.79 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 77.57% · 395 openings, odds method Variance · 6.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 29 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 91.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 16 openings · below min 7 days · 80.15% ±26.71 330 openings 30 days · 77.57% ±24.42 395 openings since tracking started · 77.57% ±24.42 395 openings -0.5% 74.3% 149.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/warpath?window=24h) | 16 | 26.97% ±121.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/warpath?window=7d) | 330 | 80.15% ±26.7 | −0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/warpath) | 395 | 77.57% ±24.4 | −1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/warpath?window=all) | 395 | 77.57% ±24.4 | −1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 395 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir P90 \| Fallout Warning (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p90-fallout-warning-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $83.12 166 coins | 8.7% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.51× | | [Souvenir XM1014 \| Fallout Warning (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-fallout-warning-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $75.70 151 coins | 12.6% | 4 | 3.2 | 1.27× | | [Souvenir UMP-45 \| Fallout Warning (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · SMGs](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ump-45-fallout-warning-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $65.76 132 coins | 13.7% | 2 | 4.0 | 0.51× | | [XM1014 \| Fallout Warning (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-fallout-warning-factory-new) | 1 in 83 | $61.38 123 coins | 15.4% | 4 | 4.7 | 0.84× | | [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $21.81 43.62 coins | 22.7% | 16 | 19.8 | 0.81× | | [P90 \| Fallout Warning (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-fallout-warning-field-tested) | 15.0% | $4.73 9.45 coins | 14.8% | 55 | 59.3 | 0.93× | | [P90 \| Desert Warfare (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-warfare-factory-new) | 25.0% | $2.15 4.29 coins | 11.2% | 114 | 98.8 | 1.15× | | [Negev \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-man-o-war-minimal-wear) | 51.5% | $0.09 0.17 coins | 0.9% | 199 | 203.4 | 0.98× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=warpath) [Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-man-o-war-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.33 10.66 coins $0.09 0.17 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 22:30 UTC [P90 | Fallout Warning (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-fallout-warning-field-tested) Hidden $5.33 10.66 coins $4.73 9.45 coins 0.89x 2026-11-10 22:30 UTC [Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-man-o-war-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.33 10.66 coins $0.09 0.17 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 22:30 UTC [Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-man-o-war-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.33 10.66 coins $0.09 0.17 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 22:30 UTC [Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-man-o-war-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.33 10.66 coins $0.09 0.17 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 22:30 UTC [Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-man-o-war-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.33 10.66 coins $0.09 0.17 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 22:30 UTC [P90 | Desert Warfare (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-warfare-factory-new) Hidden $5.33 10.66 coins $2.15 4.29 coins 0.40x 2026-11-10 22:30 UTC [Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-man-o-war-minimal-wear) [optic1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/optic1000) $5.33 10.66 coins $0.09 0.17 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 22:30 UTC [P90 | Desert Warfare (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-warfare-factory-new) Hidden $5.33 10.66 coins $2.15 4.29 coins 0.40x 2026-11-10 18:41 UTC [P90 | Desert Warfare (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-warfare-factory-new) Hidden $5.33 10.66 coins $2.15 4.29 coins 0.40x 2026-11-10 18:41 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5.33 | 89.95% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Industrial Grade 1.3% SMGs 1.0% other 1.2% covert 5.0% industrial 15.0% milspec 25.0% #4b69ff 51.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.95 on average: an expected loss of $10.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt