--- title: "Warzone case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Warzone ($30.17) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 14 items with odds, observed 55.22% over 4 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/warzone rendered: 2026-11-11T14:06Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Warzone](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/warzone) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Warzone A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/warzone?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/warzone?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/warzone) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/warzone?window=all) Price · $30.17 · 60.33 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $27.15 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 55.22% · 4 openings, odds method Variance · 3.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 4 openings · below min 30 days · 4 openings · below min since tracking started · 4 openings · below min -0.5% 115.3% 231.0% **Small sample.** 4 openings and 0.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/warzone?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/warzone?window=7d) | 4 | 55.22% ±175.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/warzone) | 4 | 55.22% ±175.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/warzone?window=all) | 4 | 55.22% ±175.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $253 506 coins | 9.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $253 506 coins | 9.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Knives](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $244 489 coins | 9.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 100 | $230 461 coins | 8.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $223 446 coins | 8.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-radiation-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $77.40 155 coins | 14.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $58.23 116 coins | 10.7% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [Souvenir Five-SeveN \| Fall Hazard (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-five-seven-fall-hazard-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $51.70 103 coins | 9.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [FAMAS \| Afterimage (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-afterimage-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $40.42 80.83 coins | 7.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [FAMAS \| Meltdown (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meltdown-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $27.78 55.56 coins | 6.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [MP7 \| Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $6.56 13.11 coins | 1.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Charm \| Die-cast AK charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-die-cast-ak) | 10.0% | $4.38 8.76 coins | 1.6% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [AUG \| Daedalus (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-daedalus-field-tested) | 25.0% | $2.28 4.56 coins | 2.1% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× | | [Dual Berettas \| Panther (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-panther-factory-new) | 26.0% | $2.01 4.02 coins | 1.9% | 2 | 1.0 | 1.92× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=warzone) [★ Shadow Daggers | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-forest-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $30.17 60.33 coins $58.23 116 coins 1.93x 2026-11-09 13:02 UTC [Dual Berettas | Panther (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-panther-factory-new) Hidden $30.17 60.33 coins $2.01 4.02 coins 0.07x 2026-11-09 13:02 UTC [Dual Berettas | Panther (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-panther-factory-new) Hidden $30.17 60.33 coins $2.01 4.02 coins 0.07x 2026-11-09 13:02 UTC [Charm | Die-cast AK charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-die-cast-ak) [axel02legmail](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/axel02legmail) $30.17 60.33 coins $4.38 8.76 coins 0.15x 2026-11-09 13:02 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $30.17 | 89.99% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 8.0% rare 1.0% Knives 1.0% mil spec 39.0% classified 16.0% #8847ff 10.0% Common 25.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt