--- title: "Wasteland case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Wasteland ($71.63) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 14.07% over 6 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/wasteland rendered: 2026-11-11T18:19Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Wasteland](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/wasteland) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Wasteland A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/wasteland?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/wasteland?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/wasteland) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/wasteland?window=all) Price · $71.63 · 143 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $64.46 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 14.07% · 6 openings, odds method Variance · 4.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 18 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 79.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 6 openings · below min 30 days · 6 openings · below min since tracking started · 6 openings · below min -0.5% 92.0% 184.5% **Small sample.** 6 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/wasteland?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/wasteland?window=7d) | 6 | 14.07% ±169.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/wasteland) | 6 | 14.07% ±169.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/wasteland?window=all) | 6 | 14.07% ±169.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $818 1,635 coins | 25.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $507 1,015 coins | 27.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $253 506 coins | 19.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $156 311 coins | 12.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $78.85 158 coins | 6.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 15.0% | $17.02 34.03 coins | 4.0% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [Nova \| Interlock (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-interlock-field-tested) | 25.0% | $8.70 17.39 coins | 3.4% | 5 | 1.5 | 3.33× | | [AUG \| Daedalus (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-daedalus-factory-new) | 39.5% | $2.56 5.11 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=wasteland) [AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) Hidden $71.63 143 coins $17.02 34.03 coins 0.24x 2026-11-08 14:44 UTC [Nova | Interlock (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-interlock-field-tested) Hidden $71.63 143 coins $8.70 17.39 coins 0.12x 2026-11-08 14:44 UTC [Nova | Interlock (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-interlock-field-tested) Hidden $71.63 143 coins $8.70 17.39 coins 0.12x 2026-11-08 14:44 UTC [Nova | Interlock (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-interlock-field-tested) Hidden $71.63 143 coins $8.70 17.39 coins 0.12x 2026-11-08 14:44 UTC [Nova | Interlock (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-interlock-field-tested) Hidden $71.63 143 coins $8.70 17.39 coins 0.12x 2026-11-08 14:44 UTC [Nova | Interlock (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-interlock-field-tested) [Brentson](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Brentson) $71.63 143 coins $8.70 17.39 coins 0.12x 2026-11-08 14:44 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $71.63 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 25.6% rare 5.0% covert knife 5.0% Mil Spec Grade 25.0% consumer 39.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt