--- title: "Weld case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Weld ($144.20) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 66.31% over 536 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/weld rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Weld](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/weld) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Weld A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/weld?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/weld?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/weld) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/weld?window=all) Price · $144.20 · 288 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $129.77 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 66.31% · 536 openings, odds method Variance · 10.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 29 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 81.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 24 openings · below min 7 days · 68.42% ±27.61 504 openings 30 days · 66.31% ±26.77 536 openings since tracking started · 66.31% ±26.77 536 openings -0.5% 69.5% 139.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/weld?window=24h) | 24 | 12.32% ±126.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/weld?window=7d) | 504 | 68.42% ±27.6 | −1.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/weld) | 536 | 66.31% ±26.8 | −1.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/weld?window=all) | 536 | 66.31% ±26.8 | −1.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 536 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $6,222 12,443 coins | 4.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $4,806 9,611 coins | 11.1% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.62× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $3,195 6,389 coins | 12.3% | 0 | 2.7 | 0.00× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-field-agent-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $1,252 2,504 coins | 7.7% | 3 | 4.3 | 0.70× | | [Sticker \| mir (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mir-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 125 | $1,250 2,500 coins | 7.7% | 3 | 4.3 | 0.70× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $956 1,912 coins | 7.4% | 5 | 5.4 | 0.93× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-big-game-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $935 1,870 coins | 10.8% | 9 | 8.0 | 1.12× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 59 | $630 1,260 coins | 8.2% | 6 | 9.1 | 0.66× | | [Souvenir M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-eye-of-horus-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $455 910 coins | 7.0% | 9 | 10.7 | 0.84× | | [Souvenir Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-nuclear-threat-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $329 658 coins | 5.1% | 17 | 10.7 | 1.59× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $314 628 coins | 4.8% | 11 | 10.7 | 1.03× | | [Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $306 612 coins | 4.7% | 12 | 10.7 | 1.12× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $223 446 coins | 3.4% | 8 | 10.7 | 0.75× | | [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $151 302 coins | 2.3% | 11 | 10.7 | 1.03× | | [P2000 \| Silver (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-silver-factory-new) | 10.0% | $25.74 51.47 coins | 2.0% | 51 | 53.6 | 0.95× | | [MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-factory-new) | 71.3% | $1.02 2.04 coins | 0.6% | 390 | 382.2 | 1.02× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-factory-new) Hidden $144 288 coins $4,806 9,611 coins 33.33x 2026-11-09 19:36 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-field-agent-factory-new) Hidden $144 288 coins $1,252 2,504 coins 8.68x 2026-11-09 20:16 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-field-agent-factory-new) Hidden $144 288 coins $1,252 2,504 coins 8.68x 2026-11-04 22:16 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-field-agent-factory-new) Hidden $144 288 coins $1,252 2,504 coins 8.68x 2026-11-04 20:07 UTC [Sticker | mir (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mir-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $144 288 coins $1,250 2,500 coins 8.67x 2026-11-09 20:23 UTC [Sticker | mir (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mir-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $144 288 coins $1,250 2,500 coins 8.67x 2026-11-09 20:11 UTC [Sticker | mir (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mir-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $144 288 coins $1,250 2,500 coins 8.67x 2026-11-04 18:52 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) Hidden $144 288 coins $956 1,912 coins 6.63x 2026-11-09 20:31 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) Hidden $144 288 coins $956 1,912 coins 6.63x 2026-11-09 20:23 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) Hidden $144 288 coins $956 1,912 coins 6.63x 2026-11-09 19:41 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=weld) [MP9 | Deadly Poison (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-factory-new) Hidden $144 288 coins $1.02 2.04 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [MP9 | Deadly Poison (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-factory-new) Hidden $144 288 coins $1.02 2.04 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [MP9 | Deadly Poison (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-factory-new) Hidden $144 288 coins $1.02 2.04 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [MP9 | Deadly Poison (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-factory-new) Hidden $144 288 coins $1.02 2.04 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [MP9 | Deadly Poison (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-factory-new) Hidden $144 288 coins $1.02 2.04 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [MP9 | Deadly Poison (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-factory-new) Hidden $144 288 coins $1.02 2.04 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [MP9 | Deadly Poison (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-factory-new) Hidden $144 288 coins $1.02 2.04 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [Souvenir Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-nuclear-threat-factory-new) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $144 288 coins $329 658 coins 2.28x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [MP9 | Deadly Poison (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-factory-new) Hidden $144 288 coins $1.02 2.04 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 23:42 UTC [MP9 | Deadly Poison (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-factory-new) Hidden $144 288 coins $1.02 2.04 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 23:42 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $144 | 90.00% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 5.0% covert 3.7% Covert 2.0% restricted 4.0% sunny 2.0% classified 2.0% mil spec 81.3% best hit $4,806 (33.33x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt