---
title: "Wicked Forge case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Wicked Forge ($90.25) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/wicked-forge
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:04Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Wicked Forge](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/wicked-forge)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Wicked Forge

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/wicked-forge?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/wicked-forge?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/wicked-forge) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/wicked-forge?window=all)

Price · $90.25 · 181 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $81.23 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 4.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/wicked-forge?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/wicked-forge?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/wicked-forge) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/wicked-forge?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 20,000 | $8,347 16,693 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 33 | $914 1,828 coins | 33.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 33 | $531 1,062 coins | 19.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Spitfire (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-spitfire-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $127 254 coins | 14.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $125 251 coins | 13.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-racing-green-field-tested) | 12.0% | $31.71 63.42 coins | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-factory-new) | 12.0% | $29.36 58.71 coins | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Night (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-factory-new) | 12.0% | $27.98 55.96 coins | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-factory-new) | 12.0% | $26.85 53.7 coins | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-factory-new) | 12.0% | $5.13 10.26 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP5-SD \| Autumn Twilly (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-autumn-twilly-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $2.79 5.58 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Momentum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $2.78 5.56 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $1.04 2.08 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-forest-leaves-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $1.04 2.08 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M249 \| Downtown (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $1.04 2.07 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [G3SG1 \| VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=wicked-forge)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $90.25 | 90.00% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 27.0% restricted 11.0% extraordinary 12.0% classified 26.0% industrial 15.0% Mythical 3.0% Consumer Grade 3.0% violet 3.0%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt