--- title: "Windy case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Windy ($0.84) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.66% from 8 items with odds, observed 90.91% over 3,902 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/windy rendered: 2026-11-11T13:10Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Windy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/windy) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Windy A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/windy?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/windy?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/windy) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/windy?window=all) Price · $0.84 · 1.68 coins Advertised RTP · 89.66% · EV $0.75 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.91% · 3,902 openings, odds method Variance · 43.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 92.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 117.39% ±70.95 328 openings 7 days · 92.12% ±22.98 3,126 openings 30 days · 90.91% ±20.57 3,902 openings since tracking started · 90.91% ±20.57 3,902 openings 46.0% 117.5% 189.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/windy?window=24h) | 328 | 117.39% ±71.0 | +0.8σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/windy?window=7d) | 3,126 | 92.12% ±23.0 | +0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/windy) | 3,902 | 90.91% ±20.6 | +0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/windy?window=all) | 3,902 | 90.91% ±20.6 | +0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,902 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 10,000 | $513 1,025 coins | 6.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Charm \| Lil' Whiskers charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-whiskers) | 1 in 101 | $15.58 31.15 coins | 20.5% | 52 | 38.6 | 1.35× | | [SG 553 \| Integrale (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $11.68 23.36 coins | 15.5% | 38 | 39.0 | 0.97× | | [UMP-45 \| Momentum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $5.63 11.25 coins | 14.9% | 84 | 78.0 | 1.08× | | [Nova \| Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $2.55 5.09 coins | 6.8% | 89 | 78.0 | 1.14× | | [P2000 \| Grassland (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grassland-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $1.09 2.18 coins | 2.9% | 69 | 78.0 | 0.88× | | [Nova \| Koi (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-koi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $0.58 1.17 coins | 1.6% | 73 | 78.0 | 0.94× | | [Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-factory-new) | 90.0% | $0.26 0.52 coins | 31.1% | 3,497 | 3511.8 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=windy) [Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $0.84 1.68 coins $0.26 0.52 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC [Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $0.84 1.68 coins $0.26 0.52 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC [Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $0.84 1.68 coins $0.26 0.52 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC [Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $0.84 1.68 coins $0.26 0.52 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC [Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $0.84 1.68 coins $0.26 0.52 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC [Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-factory-new) [420Skabais](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/420Skabais) $0.84 1.68 coins $0.26 0.52 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC [P2000 | Grassland (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grassland-field-tested) Hidden $0.84 1.68 coins $1.09 2.18 coins 1.30x 2026-11-11 12:07 UTC [Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-factory-new) [codasai](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/codasai) $0.84 1.68 coins $0.26 0.52 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 12:07 UTC [Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $0.84 1.68 coins $0.26 0.52 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 12:07 UTC [Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $0.84 1.68 coins $0.26 0.52 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 12:07 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.84 | 89.66% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.0% #8847ff 1.0% classified 3.0% consumer 2.0% Industrial Grade 2.0% restricted 2.0% mil spec 90.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.66 on average: an expected loss of $10.34 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt