--- title: "Winner Winner case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Winner Winner ($6.50) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.94% from 8 items with odds, observed 94.16% over 568 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/winner-winner rendered: 2026-11-11T17:30Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Winner Winner](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/winner-winner) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Winner Winner A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/winner-winner?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/winner-winner?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/winner-winner) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/winner-winner?window=all) Price · $6.50 · 12.99 coins Advertised RTP · 89.94% · EV $5.84 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 94.16% · 568 openings, odds method Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 27.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 53.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 56 openings · below min 7 days · 93.53% ±6.53 476 openings 30 days · 94.16% ±5.98 568 openings since tracking started · 94.16% ±5.98 568 openings 68.0% 87.8% 107.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/winner-winner?window=24h) | 56 | 87.88% ±19.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/winner-winner?window=7d) | 476 | 93.53% ±6.53 | +1.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/winner-winner) | 568 | 94.16% ±5.98 | +1.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/winner-winner?window=all) | 568 | 94.16% ±5.98 | +1.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 568 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Corticera (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $25.31 50.62 coins | 8.7% | 14 | 11.4 | 1.23× | | [Dual Berettas \| Marina (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $14.33 28.65 coins | 12.3% | 50 | 28.4 | 1.76× | | [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $12.09 24.18 coins | 10.3% | 18 | 28.4 | 0.63× | | [Glock-18 \| Reactor (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-reactor-factory-new) | 15.0% | $7.66 15.32 coins | 19.7% | 78 | 85.2 | 0.92× | | [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-factory-new) | 20.0% | $6.76 13.51 coins | 23.1% | 107 | 113.6 | 0.94× | | [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-factory-new) | 20.0% | $6.27 12.54 coins | 21.5% | 115 | 113.6 | 1.01× | | [MAC-10 \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 15.0% | $1.09 2.17 coins | 2.8% | 79 | 85.2 | 0.93× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-field-tested) | 18.0% | $0.55 1.09 coins | 1.7% | 107 | 102.2 | 1.05× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=winner-winner) [AK-47 | Safety Net (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-factory-new) Hidden $6.50 12.99 coins $6.27 12.54 coins 0.97x 2026-11-11 15:05 UTC [Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-factory-new) Hidden $6.50 12.99 coins $6.76 13.51 coins 1.04x 2026-11-11 15:05 UTC [Glock-18 | Reactor (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-reactor-factory-new) Hidden $6.50 12.99 coins $7.66 15.32 coins 1.18x 2026-11-11 15:05 UTC [Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-factory-new) Hidden $6.50 12.99 coins $6.76 13.51 coins 1.04x 2026-11-11 15:05 UTC [Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-factory-new) Hidden $6.50 12.99 coins $6.76 13.51 coins 1.04x 2026-11-11 15:05 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-field-tested) Hidden $6.50 12.99 coins $0.55 1.09 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 15:05 UTC [AK-47 | Safety Net (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-factory-new) Hidden $6.50 12.99 coins $6.27 12.54 coins 0.97x 2026-11-11 15:05 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-field-tested) Hidden $6.50 12.99 coins $0.55 1.09 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 15:05 UTC [Dual Berettas | Marina (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-factory-new) Hidden $6.50 12.99 coins $14.33 28.65 coins 2.21x 2026-11-11 15:05 UTC [Dual Berettas | Marina (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-factory-new) Hidden $6.50 12.99 coins $14.33 28.65 coins 2.21x 2026-11-11 15:05 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $6.50 | 89.94% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 22.0% restricted 43.0% covert 5.0% mil spec 30.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.94 on average: an expected loss of $10.06 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt