--- title: "Wise Welfare case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Wise Welfare ($1.58) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 8 items with odds, observed 86.13% over 1,750 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/wise-welfare rendered: 2026-11-11T17:23Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Wise Welfare](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/wise-welfare) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Wise Welfare A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/wise-welfare?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/wise-welfare?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/wise-welfare) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/wise-welfare?window=all) Price · $1.58 · 3.16 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $1.42 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 86.13% · 1,750 openings, odds method Variance · 6.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 79.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 86 openings · below min 7 days · 85.34% ±13.48 1,382 openings 30 days · 86.13% ±11.98 1,750 openings since tracking started · 86.13% ±11.98 1,750 openings 37.5% 92.3% 147.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/wise-welfare?window=24h) | 86 | 92.23% ±54.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/wise-welfare?window=7d) | 1,382 | 85.34% ±13.5 | −0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/wise-welfare) | 1,750 | 86.13% ±12.0 | −0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/wise-welfare?window=all) | 1,750 | 86.13% ±12.0 | −0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,750 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $27.81 55.62 coins | 19.6% | 12 | 17.5 | 0.69× | | [M4A4 \| Zirka (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zirka-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $19.07 38.14 coins | 26.8% | 42 | 35.0 | 1.20× | | [P2000 \| Corticera (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-corticera-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $5.61 11.22 coins | 15.8% | 70 | 70.0 | 1.00× | | [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $4.78 9.55 coins | 16.8% | 76 | 87.5 | 0.87× | | [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $3.99 7.98 coins | 11.2% | 74 | 70.0 | 1.06× | | [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $2.31 4.62 coins | 8.1% | 67 | 87.5 | 0.77× | | [G3SG1 \| Azure Zebra (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-azure-zebra-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $1.01 2.02 coins | 1.4% | 34 | 35.0 | 0.97× | | [MAG-7 \| Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) | 77.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.3% | 1,375 | 1347.5 | 1.02× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=wise-welfare) [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $1.58 3.16 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:05 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $1.58 3.16 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:05 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $1.58 3.16 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:05 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $1.58 3.16 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:05 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $1.58 3.16 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:05 UTC [AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) Hidden $1.58 3.16 coins $3.99 7.98 coins 2.53x 2026-11-11 16:05 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $1.58 3.16 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:05 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $1.58 3.16 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:05 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $1.58 3.16 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:05 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $1.58 3.16 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:05 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.58 | 89.99% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 10.0% violet 2.0% covert 5.0% Legendary 4.0% mil spec 2.0% Consumer Grade 77.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt