--- title: "Witchcraft case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Witchcraft ($2.62) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.95% from 12 items with odds, observed 93.04% over 2,224 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/witchcraft rendered: 2026-11-11T14:04Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Witchcraft](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/witchcraft) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Witchcraft A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/witchcraft?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/witchcraft?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/witchcraft) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/witchcraft?window=all) Price · $2.62 · 5.23 coins Advertised RTP · 89.95% · EV $2.35 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.04% · 2,224 openings, odds method Variance · 9.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 15 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 78.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 97.14% ±43.98 190 openings 7 days · 94.53% ±14.32 1,793 openings 30 days · 93.04% ±12.85 2,224 openings since tracking started · 93.04% ±12.85 2,224 openings 52.5% 97.2% 142.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/witchcraft?window=24h) | 190 | 97.14% ±44.0 | +0.3σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/witchcraft?window=7d) | 1,793 | 94.53% ±14.3 | +0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/witchcraft) | 2,224 | 93.04% ±12.9 | +0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/witchcraft?window=all) | 2,224 | 93.04% ±12.9 | +0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,224 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $253 506 coins | 5.4% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.80× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Lunar Weave (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-lunar-weave-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $102 205 coins | 4.3% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.35× | | [Souvenir SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-death-strike-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $51.37 103 coins | 10.9% | 8 | 11.1 | 0.72× | | [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $26.63 53.26 coins | 11.3% | 30 | 22.2 | 1.35× | | [SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $12.90 25.79 coins | 11.0% | 32 | 44.5 | 0.72× | | [AWP \| Atheris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $7.71 15.42 coins | 9.8% | 68 | 66.7 | 1.02× | | [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $5.13 10.26 coins | 8.7% | 87 | 89.0 | 0.98× | | [FAMAS \| Pulse (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $4.27 8.53 coins | 9.1% | 112 | 111.2 | 1.01× | | [PP-Bizon \| Chemical Green (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-chemical-green-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $3.04 6.08 coins | 7.8% | 134 | 133.4 | 1.00× | | [MAC-10 \| Last Dive (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-last-dive-factory-new) | 10.0% | $1.56 3.12 coins | 6.6% | 228 | 222.4 | 1.03× | | [G3SG1 \| Orange Kimono (Field-Tested) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-orange-kimono-field-tested) | 13.0% | $1.56 3.11 coins | 8.6% | 271 | 289.1 | 0.94× | | [P250 \| Iron Clad (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-iron-clad-factory-new) | 55.4% | $0.28 0.55 coins | 6.5% | 1,249 | 1231.0 | 1.01× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $2.62 5.23 coins $253 506 coins 96.71x 2026-11-06 12:44 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $2.62 5.23 coins $253 506 coins 96.71x 2026-11-04 22:27 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=witchcraft) [PP-Bizon | Chemical Green (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-chemical-green-factory-new) Hidden $2.62 5.23 coins $3.04 6.08 coins 1.16x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC [P250 | Iron Clad (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-iron-clad-factory-new) [GrimViper3313](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/GrimViper3313) $2.62 5.23 coins $0.28 0.55 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC [P250 | Iron Clad (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-iron-clad-factory-new) Hidden $2.62 5.23 coins $0.28 0.55 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC [P250 | Iron Clad (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-iron-clad-factory-new) Hidden $2.62 5.23 coins $0.28 0.55 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC [P250 | Iron Clad (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-iron-clad-factory-new) Hidden $2.62 5.23 coins $0.28 0.55 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC [P250 | Iron Clad (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-iron-clad-factory-new) Hidden $2.62 5.23 coins $0.28 0.55 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC [G3SG1 | Orange Kimono (Field-Tested) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-orange-kimono-field-tested) Hidden $2.62 5.23 coins $1.56 3.11 coins 0.59x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC [P250 | Iron Clad (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-iron-clad-factory-new) Hidden $2.62 5.23 coins $0.28 0.55 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC [MAC-10 | Last Dive (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-last-dive-factory-new) Hidden $2.62 5.23 coins $1.56 3.12 coins 0.60x 2026-11-11 01:40 UTC [G3SG1 | Orange Kimono (Field-Tested) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-orange-kimono-field-tested) Hidden $2.62 5.23 coins $1.56 3.11 coins 0.59x 2026-11-11 01:40 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.62 | 89.95% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.1% extraordinary 0.1% classified 5.5% Rare 2.0% restricted 18.0% industrial 6.0% #B0C3D9 13.0% Mil Spec Grade 55.4% best hit $253 (96.71x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.95 on average: an expected loss of $10.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt