---
title: "Wrapping Paper case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Wrapping Paper ($0.49) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.65% from 16 items with odds, observed 87.25% over 10.9K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/wrapping-paper
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:56Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Wrapping Paper](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/wrapping-paper)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Wrapping Paper

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/wrapping-paper?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/wrapping-paper?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/wrapping-paper) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/wrapping-paper?window=all)

Price · $0.49 · 0.97 coins

Advertised RTP · 89.65% · EV $0.43 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.25% · 10.9K openings, odds method

Variance · 8.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 24 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 85.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 95.51% ±13.45 1,709 openings

7 days · 87.66% ±5.89 8,909 openings

30 days · 87.25% ±5.32 10.9K openings

since tracking started · 87.25% ±5.32 10.9K openings

81.0% 95.3% 109.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/wrapping-paper?window=24h) | 1,709 | 95.51% ±13.4 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/wrapping-paper?window=7d) | 8,909 | 87.66% ±5.89 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/wrapping-paper) | 10.9K | 87.25% ±5.32 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/wrapping-paper?window=all) | 10.9K | 87.25% ±5.32 | −0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.9K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $25.96 51.91 coins | 6.0% | 10 | 10.9 | 0.91× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $5.54 11.07 coins | 7.6% | 60 | 65.6 | 0.91× |
| [MAC-10 \| Tatter (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-tatter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $5.32 10.64 coins | 8.6% | 76 | 76.5 | 0.99× |
| [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $5.17 10.34 coins | 9.5% | 81 | 87.5 | 0.93× |
| [AUG \| Death by Puppy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $4.74 9.47 coins | 10.9% | 100 | 109.3 | 0.91× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $4.58 9.15 coins | 10.5% | 115 | 109.3 | 1.05× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $3.61 7.22 coins | 12.5% | 170 | 164.0 | 1.04× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $2.03 4.06 coins | 9.3% | 213 | 218.6 | 0.97× |
| [Nova \| Moon in Libra (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $2.01 4.01 coins | 9.2% | 206 | 218.6 | 0.94× |
| [Charm \| Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) | 1 in 20 | $0.50 1 coins | 5.8% | 543 | 546.6 | 0.99× |
| [MAC-10 \| Sienna Damask (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sienna-damask-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.27 0.54 coins | 3.1% | 570 | 546.6 | 1.04× |
| [MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-monster-call-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $0.20 0.41 coins | 2.8% | 654 | 655.9 | 1.00× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-jungle-slipstream-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $0.13 0.26 coins | 2.1% | 751 | 765.2 | 0.98× |
| [P2000 \| Oceanic (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-oceanic-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.06 0.11 coins | 1.0% | 846 | 874.6 | 0.97× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Jungle Slipstream (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-jungle-slipstream-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.03 0.05 coins | 0.5% | 1,009 | 983.9 | 1.03× |
| [MAG-7 \| Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) | 50.3% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.6% | 5,528 | 5498.8 | 1.01× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-factory-new) Hidden $0.48 0.97 coins $25.96 51.91 coins 53.52x 2026-11-10 23:04 UTC

[USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-factory-new) Hidden $0.48 0.97 coins $25.96 51.91 coins 53.52x 2026-11-10 15:56 UTC

[USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-factory-new) Hidden $0.48 0.97 coins $25.96 51.91 coins 53.52x 2026-11-10 14:19 UTC

[USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-factory-new) [diizmagic](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/diizmagic) $0.48 0.97 coins $25.96 51.91 coins 53.52x 2026-11-07 19:20 UTC

[USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-factory-new) Hidden $0.48 0.97 coins $25.96 51.91 coins 53.52x 2026-11-07 12:23 UTC

[USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-factory-new) Hidden $0.48 0.97 coins $25.96 51.91 coins 53.52x 2026-11-07 00:02 UTC

[USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-factory-new) Hidden $0.48 0.97 coins $25.96 51.91 coins 53.52x 2026-11-07 00:02 UTC

[USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-factory-new) Hidden $0.48 0.97 coins $25.96 51.91 coins 53.52x 2026-11-06 00:03 UTC

[USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-factory-new) Hidden $0.48 0.97 coins $25.96 51.91 coins 53.52x 2026-11-04 19:33 UTC

[USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-factory-new) Hidden $0.48 0.97 coins $25.96 51.91 coins 53.52x 2026-11-03 17:33 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=wrapping-paper)

[MAG-7 | Monster Call (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-monster-call-field-tested) Hidden $0.48 0.97 coins $0.20 0.41 coins 0.42x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $0.48 0.97 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $0.48 0.97 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $0.48 0.97 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-factory-new) Hidden $0.48 0.97 coins $5.17 10.34 coins 10.66x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $0.48 0.97 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-jungle-slipstream-field-tested) Hidden $0.48 0.97 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $0.48 0.97 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $0.48 0.97 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $0.48 0.97 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.48 | 89.65% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.1% Legendary 0.6% #8847ff 0.7% classified 1.8% restricted 4.5% consumer 2.0% #4b69ff 5.0% Common 5.0% Mythical 6.0% Rare 7.0% mil spec 8.0% milspec 9.0% Consumer Grade 50.3% best hit $25.96 (53.52x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.65 on average: an expected loss of $10.35 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt