--- title: "Wreath case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Wreath ($108.13) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 14 items with odds, observed 54.08% over 8 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/wreath rendered: 2026-11-11T21:45Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Wreath](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/wreath) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Wreath A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/wreath?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/wreath?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/wreath) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/wreath?window=all) Price · $108.13 · 216 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $97.31 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 54.08% · 8 openings, odds method Variance · 4.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 30 days · 8 openings · below min since tracking started · 8 openings · below min -0.5% 102.5% 205.5% **Small sample.** 8 openings and 0.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/wreath?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/wreath?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/wreath) | 8 | 54.08% ±150.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/wreath?window=all) | 8 | 54.08% ±150.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 10,000 | $7,898 15,795 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $6,222 12,443 coins | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,052 4,105 coins | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 400 | $1,138 2,276 coins | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 303 | $1,022 2,043 coins | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Finish Line (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-finish-line-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $870 1,740 coins | 4.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 143 | $832 1,664 coins | 6.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-turtle-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $696 1,391 coins | 5.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 100 | $675 1,351 coins | 6.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $499 998 coins | 7.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 57 | $405 809 coins | 7.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $296 592 coins | 9.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $116 232 coins | 6.0% | 2 | 0.4 | — | | [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-factory-new) | 85.0% | $39.30 78.6 coins | 34.3% | 6 | 6.8 | 0.88× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=wreath) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $108 | 90.00% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 7.1% extraordinary 1.4% #ffd700 1.5% covert knife 5.0% classified 85.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. 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