--- title: "Xiangliu case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Xiangliu ($1.44) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.87% from 12 items with odds, observed 93.98% over 721 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/xiangliu rendered: 2026-11-11T18:28Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Xiangliu](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/xiangliu) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Xiangliu A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/xiangliu?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/xiangliu?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/xiangliu) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/xiangliu?window=all) Price · $1.44 · 2.88 coins Advertised RTP · 89.87% · EV $1.29 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.98% · 721 openings, odds method Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 14.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 66.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 36 openings · below min 7 days · 91.02% ±10.67 485 openings 30 days · 93.98% ±8.75 721 openings since tracking started · 93.98% ±8.75 721 openings 27.0% 66.8% 106.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/xiangliu?window=24h) | 36 | 66.82% ±39.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/xiangliu?window=7d) | 485 | 91.02% ±10.7 | +0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/xiangliu) | 721 | 93.98% ±8.75 | +0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/xiangliu?window=all) | 721 | 93.98% ±8.75 | +0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 721 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $6.11 12.21 coins | 14.2% | 25 | 21.6 | 1.16× | | [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $5.62 11.23 coins | 13.0% | 18 | 21.6 | 0.83× | | [P90 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $5.51 11.01 coins | 12.8% | 24 | 21.6 | 1.11× | | [MP7 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $3.88 7.75 coins | 15.0% | 40 | 36.1 | 1.11× | | [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $2.69 5.38 coins | 12.5% | 37 | 43.3 | 0.86× | | [Nova \| Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rust-coat-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $1.79 3.57 coins | 9.7% | 67 | 50.5 | 1.33× | | [Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-triumvirate-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $1.54 3.08 coins | 8.3% | 54 | 50.5 | 1.07× | | [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-field-tested) | 10.0% | $0.85 1.71 coins | 6.6% | 68 | 72.1 | 0.94× | | [Charm \| Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) | 10.0% | $0.50 1 coins | 3.9% | 70 | 72.1 | 0.97× | | [R8 Revolver \| Survivalist (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-survivalist-factory-new) | 20.0% | $0.23 0.46 coins | 3.6% | 149 | 144.2 | 1.03× | | [MP9 \| Slide (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-slide-factory-new) | 15.0% | $0.04 0.07 coins | 0.4% | 96 | 108.1 | 0.89× | | [R8 Revolver \| Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-nitro-field-tested) | 11.0% | $0.03 0.05 coins | 0.2% | 73 | 79.3 | 0.92× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=xiangliu) [Five-SeveN | Triumvirate (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-triumvirate-field-tested) Hidden $1.44 2.88 coins $1.54 3.08 coins 1.07x 2026-11-11 18:09 UTC [MP9 | Slide (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-slide-factory-new) Hidden $1.44 2.88 coins $0.04 0.07 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:09 UTC [Galil AR | Stone Cold (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-field-tested) Hidden $1.44 2.88 coins $0.85 1.71 coins 0.59x 2026-11-11 18:09 UTC [MP9 | Slide (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-slide-factory-new) Hidden $1.44 2.88 coins $0.04 0.07 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:09 UTC [R8 Revolver | Survivalist (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-survivalist-factory-new) Hidden $1.44 2.88 coins $0.23 0.46 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 18:09 UTC [R8 Revolver | Survivalist (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-survivalist-factory-new) Hidden $1.44 2.88 coins $0.23 0.46 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 18:09 UTC [Nova | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $1.44 2.88 coins $1.79 3.57 coins 1.24x 2026-11-11 18:09 UTC [R8 Revolver | Survivalist (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-survivalist-factory-new) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $1.44 2.88 coins $0.23 0.46 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 18:09 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.44 2.88 coins $6.11 12.21 coins 4.24x 2026-11-11 08:50 UTC [R8 Revolver | Survivalist (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-survivalist-factory-new) [Greg](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Greg) $1.44 2.88 coins $0.23 0.46 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 08:50 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.44 | 89.87% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 6.0% covert 3.0% restricted 15.0% #d32ee6 6.0% Industrial Grade 7.0% violet 7.0% #4b69ff 10.0% mil spec 20.0% Common 15.0% industrial 11.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.87 on average: an expected loss of $10.13 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt