--- title: "0 Chance case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "0 Chance ($2.52) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.95% from 10 items with odds, observed 82.70% over 22.9K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/0-chance rendered: 2026-11-11T13:42Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [0 Chance](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/0-chance) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · 0 Chance A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/0-chance?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/0-chance?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/0-chance) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/0-chance?window=all) Price · $2.52 · 3.87 gems Advertised RTP · 89.95% · EV $2.26 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 82.70% · 22.9K openings, odds method Variance · 726.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 2,000 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 3,062 openings · below min 7 days · 98.32% ±38.19 19.1K openings 30 days · 82.70% ±34.90 22.9K openings since tracking started · 82.70% ±34.90 22.9K openings 47.0% 166.0% 285.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/0-chance?window=24h) | 3,062 | 189.00% ±95.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/0-chance?window=7d) | 19.1K | 98.32% ±38.2 | +0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/0-chance) | 22.9K | 82.70% ±34.9 | −0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/0-chance?window=all) | 22.9K | 82.70% ±34.9 | −0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 23K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $3,865 5,945 gems | 17.1% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.30× | | [M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $2,584 3,975 gems | 22.8% | 3 | 4.6 | 0.65× | | [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $2,405 3,700 gems | 21.3% | 5 | 4.6 | 1.09× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $818 1,259 gems | 18.1% | 10 | 11.5 | 0.87× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $754 1,160 gems | 16.7% | 8 | 11.5 | 0.70× | | [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $0.12 0.18 gems | 0.5% | 2,358 | 2300.6 | 1.02× | | [Glock-18 \| High Beam (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-high-beam-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $0.11 0.17 gems | 0.5% | 2,245 | 2300.6 | 0.98× | | [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | $0.10 0.15 gems | 0.9% | 4,580 | 4601.2 | 1.00× | | [AK-47 \| Olive Polycam (Well-Worn) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-olive-polycam-well-worn) | 25.0% | $0.09 0.14 gems | 1.0% | 5,746 | 5751.5 | 1.00× | | [PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-space-cat-battle-scarred) | 34.8% | $0.08 0.12 gems | 1.2% | 8,048 | 8017.6 | 1.00× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) [vlad](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/vlad) $2.52 3.87 gems $3,865 5,945 gems 1,536x 2026-11-11 04:58 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $2.52 3.87 gems $3,865 5,945 gems 1,536x 2026-11-08 22:24 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $2.52 3.87 gems $3,865 5,945 gems 1,536x 2026-11-08 21:57 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $2.52 3.87 gems $2,584 3,975 gems 1,027x 2026-11-11 10:46 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) [ｓｔａｙ ᵀʳⁱᵖᵖʸ](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/%EF%BD%93%EF%BD%94%EF%BD%81%EF%BD%99%20%E1%B5%80%CA%B3%E2%81%B1%E1%B5%96%E1%B5%96%CA%B8) $2.52 3.87 gems $2,584 3,975 gems 1,027x 2026-11-08 07:46 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $2.52 3.87 gems $2,584 3,975 gems 1,027x 2026-11-06 04:31 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) Hidden $2.52 3.87 gems $2,405 3,700 gems 956.1x 2026-11-11 12:15 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) Hidden $2.52 3.87 gems $2,405 3,700 gems 956.1x 2026-11-11 04:21 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) Hidden $2.52 3.87 gems $2,405 3,700 gems 956.1x 2026-11-09 22:07 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) Hidden $2.52 3.87 gems $2,405 3,700 gems 956.1x 2026-11-08 22:25 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=0-chance) [AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Well-Worn) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-olive-polycam-well-worn) Hidden $2.52 3.87 gems $0.09 0.14 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC [PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-space-cat-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.52 3.87 gems $0.08 0.12 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC [M4A1-S | Nitro (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.52 3.87 gems $0.12 0.18 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC [AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Well-Worn) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-olive-polycam-well-worn) Hidden $2.52 3.87 gems $0.09 0.14 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [Glock-18 | High Beam (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-high-beam-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.52 3.87 gems $0.11 0.17 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [M4A1-S | Nitro (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.52 3.87 gems $0.12 0.18 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [Glock-18 | High Beam (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-high-beam-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.52 3.87 gems $0.11 0.17 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC [USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.52 3.87 gems $0.10 0.15 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC [AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Well-Worn) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-olive-polycam-well-worn) Hidden $2.52 3.87 gems $0.09 0.14 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC [PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-space-cat-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.52 3.87 gems $0.08 0.12 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $2.52 | 89.95% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed knifes 0.0% classified 0.0% covert knife 0.1% covert 0.1% restricted 30.0% Uncommon 10.0% #5e98d9 25.0% violet 34.8% best hit $3,865 (1,536x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.95 on average: an expected loss of $10.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt