--- title: "10% AWP case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "10% AWP ($228.07) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 6 items with odds, observed 93.35% over 1,268 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-awp rendered: 2026-11-11T20:36Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [10% AWP](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-awp) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · 10% AWP A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-awp?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-awp?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-awp) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-awp?window=all) Price · $228.07 · 351 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $205.27 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.35% · 1,268 openings, odds method Variance · 9.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 78 openings · below min 7 days · 97.31% ±20.55 884 openings 30 days · 93.35% ±17.16 1,268 openings since tracking started · 93.35% ±17.16 1,268 openings 13.0% 82.7% 152.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-awp?window=24h) | 78 | 82.76% ±69.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-awp?window=7d) | 884 | 97.31% ±20.6 | +0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-awp) | 1,268 | 93.35% ±17.2 | +0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-awp?window=all) | 1,268 | 93.35% ±17.2 | +0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,320 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $3,308 5,090 gems | 32.2% | 19 | 26.4 | 0.72× | | [AWP \| Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $3,273 5,036 gems | 31.9% | 33 | 26.4 | 1.25× | | [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $2,127 3,272 gems | 20.7% | 30 | 26.4 | 1.14× | | [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $777 1,196 gems | 15.1% | 61 | 52.8 | 1.16× | | [P250 \| Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-factory-new) | 45.0% | $0.02 0.03 gems | 0.0% | 607 | 594.0 | 1.02× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) | 45.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 gems | 0.0% | 570 | 594.0 | 0.96× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) Hidden $228 351 gems $3,308 5,090 gems 14.51x 2026-11-11 15:25 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) Hidden $228 351 gems $3,308 5,090 gems 14.51x 2026-11-10 20:20 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) Hidden $228 351 gems $3,308 5,090 gems 14.51x 2026-11-10 20:20 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) Hidden $228 351 gems $3,308 5,090 gems 14.51x 2026-11-09 22:54 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) Hidden $228 351 gems $3,308 5,090 gems 14.51x 2026-11-09 09:46 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) Hidden $228 351 gems $3,308 5,090 gems 14.51x 2026-11-08 19:26 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) [BOTAIRTXonKICK Refbot,ai 50kLBs](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/BOTAIRTXonKICK%20Refbot%2Cai%2050kLBs) $228 351 gems $3,308 5,090 gems 14.51x 2026-11-08 16:27 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) Hidden $228 351 gems $3,308 5,090 gems 14.51x 2026-11-07 21:14 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) Hidden $228 351 gems $3,308 5,090 gems 14.51x 2026-11-06 07:29 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) Hidden $228 351 gems $3,308 5,090 gems 14.51x 2026-11-05 20:53 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=10percent-awp) [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $228 351 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:48 UTC [AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) Hidden $228 351 gems $2,127 3,272 gems 9.32x 2026-11-11 18:48 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-factory-new) Hidden $228 351 gems $0.02 0.03 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:48 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $228 351 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:48 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $228 351 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:48 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) [Live @ Kick/JaekCreates](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Live%20%40%20Kick%2FJaekCreates) $228 351 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:48 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $228 351 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:03 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-factory-new) Hidden $228 351 gems $0.02 0.03 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:03 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $228 351 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:03 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $228 351 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:03 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $228 | 90.00% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 10.0% consumer 90.0% best hit $3,308 (14.51x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt