--- title: "10% chance case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "10% chance ($107.31) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 73.77% over 618 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-chance rendered: 2026-11-12T06:12Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [10% chance](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-chance) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · 10% chance A case on Clash.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-chance?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-chance?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-chance) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-chance?window=all) Price · $107.31 · 165 gems Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 73.77% · 618 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 158 openings · below min 7 days · 510 openings · below min 30 days · 618 openings · below min since tracking started · 618 openings · below min 42.5% 83.5% 124.5% **Small sample.** 618 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-chance?window=24h) | 158 | 85.85% ±37.8 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-chance?window=7d) | 510 | 69.12% ±25.9 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-chance) | 618 | 73.77% ±28.0 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-chance?window=all) | 618 | 73.77% ±28.0 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Clash.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) [Rocket](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Rocket) $107 165 gems $5,281 8,125 gems 49.21x 2026-11-06 10:26 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) Hidden $107 165 gems $5,281 8,125 gems 49.21x 2026-11-04 01:39 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) Hidden $107 165 gems $2,951 4,540 gems 27.50x 2026-11-04 01:41 UTC [M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-factory-new) Hidden $107 165 gems $1,078 1,659 gems 10.05x 2026-11-11 20:48 UTC [M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-factory-new) Hidden $107 165 gems $1,078 1,659 gems 10.05x 2026-11-11 20:45 UTC [M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-factory-new) Hidden $107 165 gems $1,078 1,659 gems 10.05x 2026-11-11 18:58 UTC [M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-factory-new) Hidden $107 165 gems $1,078 1,659 gems 10.05x 2026-11-11 15:56 UTC [M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-factory-new) Hidden $107 165 gems $1,078 1,659 gems 10.05x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-factory-new) Hidden $107 165 gems $1,078 1,659 gems 10.05x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC [M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-factory-new) [Shadow](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Shadow) $107 165 gems $1,078 1,659 gems 10.05x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=10percent-chance) [M4A1-S | Fizzy POP (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-factory-new) Hidden $107 165 gems $1.05 1.62 gems 0.01x 2026-11-12 01:02 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $107 165 gems $254 391 gems 2.37x 2026-11-12 01:02 UTC [M4A1-S | Fizzy POP (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-factory-new) Hidden $107 165 gems $1.05 1.62 gems 0.01x 2026-11-12 01:02 UTC [M4A1-S | Fizzy POP (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-factory-new) Hidden $107 165 gems $1.05 1.62 gems 0.01x 2026-11-12 01:02 UTC [M4A1-S | Fizzy POP (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-factory-new) Hidden $107 165 gems $1.05 1.62 gems 0.01x 2026-11-12 01:02 UTC [M4A1-S | Fizzy POP (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-factory-new) [ForZa ITeck\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/ForZa%20ITeck_) $107 165 gems $1.05 1.62 gems 0.01x 2026-11-12 01:02 UTC [M4A1-S | Fizzy POP (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-factory-new) Hidden $107 165 gems $1.05 1.62 gems 0.01x 2026-11-12 01:02 UTC [M4A1-S | Fizzy POP (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-factory-new) Hidden $107 165 gems $1.05 1.62 gems 0.01x 2026-11-12 01:02 UTC [M4A1-S | Fizzy POP (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-factory-new) Hidden $107 165 gems $1.05 1.62 gems 0.01x 2026-11-12 01:02 UTC [M4A1-S | Fizzy POP (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-factory-new) Hidden $107 165 gems $1.05 1.62 gems 0.01x 2026-11-12 01:02 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $5,281 (49.21x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 73.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $73.77 on average: an expected loss of $26.23 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt