--- title: "10% Dirt case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "10% Dirt ($0.30) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.30% from 8 items with odds, observed 90.19% over 18K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-dirt rendered: 2026-11-11T20:35Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [10% Dirt](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-dirt) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · 10% Dirt A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-dirt?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-dirt?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-dirt) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-dirt?window=all) Price · $0.30 · 0.46 gems Advertised RTP · 89.30% · EV $0.27 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.19% · 18K openings, odds method Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 68.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 88.59% ±4.55 2,003 openings 7 days · 89.37% ±1.66 15K openings 30 days · 90.19% ±1.52 18K openings since tracking started · 90.19% ±1.52 18K openings 83.5% 88.8% 94.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-dirt?window=24h) | 2,003 | 88.59% ±4.55 | −0.3σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-dirt?window=7d) | 15K | 89.37% ±1.66 | +0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-dirt) | 18K | 90.19% ±1.52 | +1.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-dirt?window=all) | 18K | 90.19% ±1.52 | +1.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18.4K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [R8 Revolver \| Skull Crusher (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-skull-crusher-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $0.98 1.5 gems | 36.5% | 1,881 | 1839.2 | 1.02× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Silver (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-silver-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.64 0.98 gems | 23.9% | 1,848 | 1839.2 | 1.00× | | [MP5-SD \| Condition Zero (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-condition-zero-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.50 0.77 gems | 18.7% | 1,871 | 1839.2 | 1.02× | | [XM1014 \| Scumbria (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-scumbria-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $0.34 0.52 gems | 2.5% | 356 | 367.8 | 0.97× | | [UMP-45 \| Roadblock (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-roadblock-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $0.21 0.33 gems | 2.4% | 511 | 551.8 | 0.93× | | [SCAR-20 \| Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-blueprint-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.18 0.27 gems | 3.3% | 964 | 919.6 | 1.05× | | [SG 553 \| Lush Ruins (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.10 0.16 gems | 1.9% | 897 | 919.6 | 0.98× | | [MP9 \| Slide (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-slide-factory-new) | 55.0% | $0.05 0.08 gems | 10.7% | 10,064 | 10115.7 | 0.99× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=10percent-dirt) [MP9 | Slide (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-slide-factory-new) Hidden $0.30 0.46 gems $0.05 0.08 gems 0.17x 2026-11-11 20:15 UTC [MP9 | Slide (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-slide-factory-new) [Guigz](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Guigz) $0.30 0.46 gems $0.05 0.08 gems 0.17x 2026-11-11 20:15 UTC [MP9 | Slide (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-slide-factory-new) Hidden $0.30 0.46 gems $0.05 0.08 gems 0.17x 2026-11-11 20:10 UTC [MP5-SD | Condition Zero (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-condition-zero-factory-new) Hidden $0.30 0.46 gems $0.50 0.77 gems 1.67x 2026-11-11 20:10 UTC [SCAR-20 | Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-blueprint-factory-new) [Jimppa](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Jimppa) $0.30 0.46 gems $0.18 0.27 gems 0.59x 2026-11-11 20:10 UTC [MP9 | Slide (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-slide-factory-new) Hidden $0.30 0.46 gems $0.05 0.08 gems 0.17x 2026-11-11 20:10 UTC [MP9 | Slide (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-slide-factory-new) Hidden $0.30 0.46 gems $0.05 0.08 gems 0.17x 2026-11-11 20:10 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Silver (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-silver-factory-new) [Jimppa](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Jimppa) $0.30 0.46 gems $0.64 0.98 gems 2.13x 2026-11-11 20:10 UTC [MP9 | Slide (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-slide-factory-new) Hidden $0.30 0.46 gems $0.05 0.08 gems 0.17x 2026-11-11 20:10 UTC [MP5-SD | Condition Zero (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-condition-zero-factory-new) Hidden $0.30 0.46 gems $0.50 0.77 gems 1.67x 2026-11-11 20:10 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $0.30 | 89.30% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 10.0% light blue 10.0% Rare 12.0% Mil Spec 3.0% #4b69ff 5.0% gray 5.0% Common 55.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.30 on average: an expected loss of $10.70 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt