--- title: "10% FALCHION case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "10% FALCHION ($27.38) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 7 items with odds, observed 82.51% over 1,854 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-falchion rendered: 2026-11-11T22:07Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [10% FALCHION](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-falchion) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · 10% FALCHION A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-falchion?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-falchion?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-falchion) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-falchion?window=all) Price · $27.38 · 42.12 gems Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $24.64 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 82.51% · 1,854 openings, odds method Variance · 9.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 98.62% ±42.85 206 openings 7 days · 81.69% ±16.66 1,363 openings 30 days · 82.51% ±14.28 1,854 openings since tracking started · 82.51% ±14.28 1,854 openings 55.0% 98.5% 142.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-falchion?window=24h) | 206 | 98.62% ±42.8 | +0.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-falchion?window=7d) | 1,363 | 81.69% ±16.7 | −1.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-falchion) | 1,854 | 82.51% ±14.3 | −1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-falchion?window=all) | 1,854 | 82.51% ±14.3 | −1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,864 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $539 829 gems | 43.8% | 33 | 37.3 | 0.89× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $231 356 gems | 18.8% | 36 | 37.3 | 0.97× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $162 249 gems | 19.7% | 56 | 55.9 | 1.00× | | [★ Falchion Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife) | 1 in 33 | $103 159 gems | 12.6% | 43 | 55.9 | 0.77× | | [Bloodhound Pin pin · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-pin) | 30.0% | $3.59 5.52 gems | 4.4% | 556 | 559.2 | 0.99× | | [MAG-7 \| Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-sand-dune-battle-scarred) | 30.0% | $0.71 1.09 gems | 0.9% | 567 | 559.2 | 1.01× | | [P250 \| Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-minimal-wear) | 30.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 gems | 0.0% | 573 | 559.2 | 1.02× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $27.38 42.12 gems $539 829 gems 19.69x 2026-11-11 19:57 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $27.38 42.12 gems $539 829 gems 19.69x 2026-11-11 04:47 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) [JoeTubeOnKick](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/JoeTubeOnKick) $27.38 42.12 gems $539 829 gems 19.69x 2026-11-11 04:46 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $27.38 42.12 gems $539 829 gems 19.69x 2026-11-11 04:46 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $27.38 42.12 gems $539 829 gems 19.69x 2026-11-11 04:37 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $27.38 42.12 gems $539 829 gems 19.69x 2026-11-11 04:37 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) [JoeTubeOnKick](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/JoeTubeOnKick) $27.38 42.12 gems $539 829 gems 19.69x 2026-11-10 04:18 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $27.38 42.12 gems $539 829 gems 19.69x 2026-11-10 04:07 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $27.38 42.12 gems $539 829 gems 19.69x 2026-11-10 04:03 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $27.38 42.12 gems $539 829 gems 19.69x 2026-11-09 16:10 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=10percent-falchion) [Bloodhound Pin pin · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-pin) Hidden $27.38 42.12 gems $3.59 5.52 gems 0.13x 2026-11-11 21:43 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-minimal-wear) Hidden $27.38 42.12 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:43 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-minimal-wear) Hidden $27.38 42.12 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:43 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-minimal-wear) [HeinzeGlück](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/HeinzeGl%C3%BCck) $27.38 42.12 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:43 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-minimal-wear) Hidden $27.38 42.12 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:43 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-minimal-wear) Hidden $27.38 42.12 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:43 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-minimal-wear) Hidden $27.38 42.12 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:43 UTC [MAG-7 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-sand-dune-battle-scarred) [HeinzeGlück](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/HeinzeGl%C3%BCck) $27.38 42.12 gems $0.71 1.09 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 21:43 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-minimal-wear) Hidden $27.38 42.12 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:43 UTC [MAG-7 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-sand-dune-battle-scarred) Hidden $27.38 42.12 gems $0.71 1.09 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 21:43 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $27.38 | 89.98% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed knifes 2.0% sunny 2.0% covert 6.0% exotic 30.0% consumer 60.0% best hit $539 (19.69x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt