--- title: "10% Knife case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "10% Knife ($29.78) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 7 items with odds, observed 93.00% over 5,156 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-knife rendered: 2026-11-11T20:46Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [10% Knife](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-knife) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · 10% Knife A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-knife?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-knife?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-knife) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-knife?window=all) Price · $29.78 · 45.81 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $26.80 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.00% · 5,156 openings, odds method Variance · 17.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 80.60% ±39.09 451 openings 7 days · 99.55% ±13.10 4,015 openings 30 days · 93.00% ±11.56 5,156 openings since tracking started · 93.00% ±11.56 5,156 openings 41.0% 80.8% 120.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-knife?window=24h) | 451 | 80.60% ±39.1 | −0.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-knife?window=7d) | 4,015 | 99.55% ±13.1 | +1.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-knife) | 5,156 | 93.00% ±11.6 | +0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-knife?window=all) | 5,156 | 93.00% ±11.6 | +0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,330 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $1,143 1,759 gems | 42.7% | 56 | 53.3 | 1.05× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Night (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-night-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $438 675 gems | 16.4% | 51 | 53.3 | 0.96× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $232 357 gems | 8.7% | 57 | 53.3 | 1.07× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-safari-mesh-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $152 235 gems | 11.4% | 125 | 106.6 | 1.17× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $118 182 gems | 8.8% | 105 | 106.6 | 0.99× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $107 165 gems | 12.0% | 156 | 159.9 | 0.98× | | [P90 \| Sand Spray (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-well-worn) | 90.0% | $0.04 0.06 gems | 0.1% | 4,780 | 4797.0 | 1.00× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $29.78 45.81 gems $1,143 1,759 gems 38.40x 2026-11-11 20:07 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $29.78 45.81 gems $1,143 1,759 gems 38.40x 2026-11-11 18:48 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $29.78 45.81 gems $1,143 1,759 gems 38.40x 2026-11-10 17:05 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $29.78 45.81 gems $1,143 1,759 gems 38.40x 2026-11-10 16:30 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $29.78 45.81 gems $1,143 1,759 gems 38.40x 2026-11-10 14:31 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $29.78 45.81 gems $1,143 1,759 gems 38.40x 2026-11-09 18:28 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $29.78 45.81 gems $1,143 1,759 gems 38.40x 2026-11-09 18:27 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-crimson-web-minimal-wear) [NI𝕏A ˙ᵕ˙](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/NI%F0%9D%95%8FA%20%CB%99%E1%B5%95%CB%99) $29.78 45.81 gems $1,143 1,759 gems 38.40x 2026-11-09 16:32 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-crimson-web-minimal-wear) [Sleepy Python](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Sleepy%20Python) $29.78 45.81 gems $1,143 1,759 gems 38.40x 2026-11-09 15:30 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $29.78 45.81 gems $1,143 1,759 gems 38.40x 2026-11-09 05:42 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=10percent-knife) [P90 | Sand Spray (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-well-worn) Hidden $29.78 45.81 gems $0.04 0.06 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:44 UTC [P90 | Sand Spray (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-well-worn) Hidden $29.78 45.81 gems $0.04 0.06 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:44 UTC [P90 | Sand Spray (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-well-worn) Hidden $29.78 45.81 gems $0.04 0.06 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:44 UTC [P90 | Sand Spray (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-well-worn) Hidden $29.78 45.81 gems $0.04 0.06 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:44 UTC [P90 | Sand Spray (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-well-worn) Hidden $29.78 45.81 gems $0.04 0.06 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:44 UTC [P90 | Sand Spray (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-well-worn) Hidden $29.78 45.81 gems $0.04 0.06 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:44 UTC [P90 | Sand Spray (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-well-worn) Hidden $29.78 45.81 gems $0.04 0.06 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:31 UTC [P90 | Sand Spray (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-well-worn) Hidden $29.78 45.81 gems $0.04 0.06 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:31 UTC [P90 | Sand Spray (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-well-worn) Hidden $29.78 45.81 gems $0.04 0.06 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:31 UTC [P90 | Sand Spray (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-well-worn) [7gg7](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/7gg7) $29.78 45.81 gems $0.04 0.06 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:31 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $29.78 | 89.99% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed #ffd700 1.0% epic 1.0% Immortal 1.0% covert 4.0% covert knife 3.0% consumer 90.0% best hit $1,143 (38.40x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt