--- title: "10% Lore case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "10% Lore ($332.78) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 72.61% over 649 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-lore rendered: 2026-11-11T16:49Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [10% Lore](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-lore) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · 10% Lore A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-lore?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-lore?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-lore) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-lore?window=all) Price · $332.78 · 512 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $299.50 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 72.61% · 649 openings, odds method Variance · 18.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 40 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 36 openings · below min 7 days · 63.83% ±42.16 390 openings 30 days · 72.61% ±32.68 649 openings since tracking started · 72.61% ±32.68 649 openings -0.5% 69.5% 139.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-lore?window=24h) | 36 | 0.15% ±138.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-lore?window=7d) | 390 | 63.83% ±42.2 | −1.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-lore) | 649 | 72.61% ±32.7 | −1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-lore?window=all) | 649 | 72.61% ±32.7 | −1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 680 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $8,936 13,748 gems | 74.6% | 13 | 17.0 | 0.76× | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $1,452 2,233 gems | 12.1% | 14 | 17.0 | 0.82× | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $1,191 1,832 gems | 9.9% | 13 | 17.0 | 0.76× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $382 587 gems | 3.2% | 15 | 17.0 | 0.88× | | [USP-S \| Torque (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-well-worn) | 17.0% | $1.10 1.69 gems | 0.1% | 111 | 115.6 | 0.96× | | [M249 \| Blizzard Marbleized (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-blizzard-marbleized-well-worn) | 17.0% | $0.90 1.39 gems | 0.1% | 122 | 115.6 | 1.06× | | [AWP \| Worm God (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-factory-new) | 17.0% | $0.89 1.37 gems | 0.1% | 110 | 115.6 | 0.95× | | [P250 \| Valence (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-well-worn) | 17.0% | $0.05 0.07 gems | 0.0% | 120 | 115.6 | 1.04× | | [P2000 \| Granite Marbleized (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-granite-marbleized-well-worn) | 22.0% | $0.04 0.06 gems | 0.0% | 162 | 149.6 | 1.08× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $333 512 gems $8,936 13,748 gems 26.85x 2026-11-06 22:06 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $333 512 gems $8,936 13,748 gems 26.85x 2026-11-06 09:33 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $333 512 gems $8,936 13,748 gems 26.85x 2026-11-06 07:42 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $333 512 gems $8,936 13,748 gems 26.85x 2026-11-06 07:33 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $333 512 gems $8,936 13,748 gems 26.85x 2026-11-05 19:41 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $333 512 gems $8,936 13,748 gems 26.85x 2026-11-05 18:19 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $333 512 gems $8,936 13,748 gems 26.85x 2026-11-05 06:35 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $333 512 gems $8,936 13,748 gems 26.85x 2026-11-04 00:14 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $333 512 gems $8,936 13,748 gems 26.85x 2026-11-03 10:26 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) [GdZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/GdZ) $333 512 gems $8,936 13,748 gems 26.85x 2026-11-03 05:28 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=10percent-lore) [P250 | Valence (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-well-worn) Hidden $333 512 gems $0.05 0.07 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:33 UTC [P2000 | Granite Marbleized (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-granite-marbleized-well-worn) Hidden $333 512 gems $0.04 0.06 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:33 UTC [M249 | Blizzard Marbleized (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-blizzard-marbleized-well-worn) Hidden $333 512 gems $0.90 1.39 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:33 UTC [P250 | Valence (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-well-worn) Hidden $333 512 gems $0.05 0.07 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:33 UTC [M249 | Blizzard Marbleized (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-blizzard-marbleized-well-worn) Hidden $333 512 gems $0.90 1.39 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:33 UTC [USP-S | Torque (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-well-worn) [Kick/HarryJZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Kick%2FHarryJZ) $333 512 gems $1.10 1.69 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:33 UTC [AWP | Worm God (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-factory-new) Hidden $333 512 gems $0.89 1.37 gems 0.00x 2026-11-10 19:26 UTC [P2000 | Granite Marbleized (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-granite-marbleized-well-worn) Hidden $333 512 gems $0.04 0.06 gems 0.00x 2026-11-10 19:26 UTC [AWP | Worm God (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-factory-new) Hidden $333 512 gems $0.89 1.37 gems 0.00x 2026-11-10 19:26 UTC [P2000 | Granite Marbleized (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-granite-marbleized-well-worn) Hidden $333 512 gems $0.04 0.06 gems 0.00x 2026-11-10 19:26 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $333 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 7.5% Covert 2.5% blue 34.0% industrial 39.0% restricted 17.0% best hit $8,936 (26.85x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt