--- title: "10% M4A case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "10% M4A ($19.66) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 12 items with odds, observed 99.12% over 3,995 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-m4a rendered: 2026-11-11T19:00Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [10% M4A](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-m4a) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · 10% M4A A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-m4a?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-m4a?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-m4a) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-m4a?window=all) Price · $19.66 · 30.25 gems Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $17.69 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 99.12% · 3,995 openings, odds method Variance · 6.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 22 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 104.21% ±29.12 304 openings 7 days · 97.89% ±8.92 3,236 openings 30 days · 99.12% ±8.03 3,995 openings since tracking started · 99.12% ±8.03 3,995 openings 74.5% 104.3% 134.0% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 89.98% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (91.09% – 107.15%, 3,995 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-m4a?window=24h) | 304 | 104.21% ±29.1 | +1.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-m4a?window=7d) | 3,236 | 97.89% ±8.92 | +1.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-m4a) | 3,995 | 99.12% ±8.03 | +2.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-m4a?window=all) | 3,995 | 99.12% ±8.03 | +2.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,101 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $298 459 gems | 8.4% | 24 | 20.5 | 1.17× | | [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $259 399 gems | 11.0% | 34 | 30.8 | 1.11× | | [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $202 311 gems | 11.4% | 58 | 41.0 | 1.41× | | [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $193 297 gems | 10.9% | 35 | 41.0 | 0.85× | | [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $152 234 gems | 10.7% | 56 | 51.3 | 1.09× | | [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-factory-new) | 1 in 57 | $141 217 gems | 14.0% | 72 | 71.8 | 1.00× | | [M4A4 \| Hellish (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-factory-new) | 1 in 57 | $133 204 gems | 13.1% | 94 | 71.8 | 1.31× | | [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $106 164 gems | 12.0% | 81 | 82.0 | 0.99× | | [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | $5.11 7.86 gems | 5.8% | 813 | 820.2 | 0.99× | | [M4A1-S \| Solitude (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-well-worn) | 20.0% | $1.59 2.45 gems | 1.8% | 857 | 820.2 | 1.04× | | [M4A4 \| Converter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-minimal-wear) | 25.0% | $0.38 0.58 gems | 0.5% | 1,018 | 1025.3 | 0.99× | | [M4A4 \| Steel Work (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-minimal-wear) | 25.0% | $0.21 0.32 gems | 0.3% | 959 | 1025.3 | 0.94× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=10percent-m4a) [M4A1-S | Solitude (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-well-worn) Hidden $19.66 30.25 gems $1.59 2.45 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 17:36 UTC [M4A4 | Steel Work (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-minimal-wear) Hidden $19.66 30.25 gems $0.21 0.32 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:36 UTC [M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-battle-scarred) Hidden $19.66 30.25 gems $5.11 7.86 gems 0.26x 2026-11-11 17:36 UTC [M4A4 | Converter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-minimal-wear) Hidden $19.66 30.25 gems $0.38 0.58 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:36 UTC [M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-factory-new) Hidden $19.66 30.25 gems $141 217 gems 7.17x 2026-11-11 17:36 UTC [M4A4 | Steel Work (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-minimal-wear) [Zyro0\_-](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Zyro0_-) $19.66 30.25 gems $0.21 0.32 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:36 UTC [M4A1-S | Solitude (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-well-worn) Hidden $19.66 30.25 gems $1.59 2.45 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 17:27 UTC [M4A4 | Converter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-minimal-wear) Hidden $19.66 30.25 gems $0.38 0.58 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:27 UTC [M4A4 | Steel Work (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-minimal-wear) Hidden $19.66 30.25 gems $0.21 0.32 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:27 UTC [M4A4 | Converter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-minimal-wear) Hidden $19.66 30.25 gems $0.38 0.58 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:27 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $19.66 | 89.98% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed epic 2.3% classified 2.8% covert 3.3% rare 1.8% violet 20.0% pink 20.0% mil spec 25.0% Uncommon 25.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt