--- title: "10% Mirage case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "10% Mirage ($74.70) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 10 items with odds, observed 94.91% over 797 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-mirage rendered: 2026-11-12T05:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [10% Mirage](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-mirage) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · 10% Mirage A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-mirage?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-mirage?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-mirage) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-mirage?window=all) Price · $74.70 · 115 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $67.23 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 94.91% · 797 openings, odds method Variance · 4.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 33 openings · below min 7 days · 94.34% ±15.79 685 openings 30 days · 94.91% ±14.64 797 openings since tracking started · 94.91% ±14.64 797 openings -0.5% 66.8% 134.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-mirage?window=24h) | 33 | 61.59% ±71.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-mirage?window=7d) | 685 | 94.34% ±15.8 | +0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-mirage) | 797 | 94.91% ±14.6 | +0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-mirage?window=all) | 797 | 94.91% ±14.6 | +0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 797 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $897 1,380 gems | 26.7% | 18 | 15.9 | 1.13× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $560 861 gems | 25.0% | 25 | 23.9 | 1.05× | | [Souvenir Galil AR \| Cerberus (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-galil-ar-cerberus-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $247 380 gems | 18.4% | 41 | 39.9 | 1.03× | | [StatTrak™ AUG \| Chameleon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-chameleon-factory-new) | 10.0% | $61.31 94.33 gems | 9.1% | 80 | 79.7 | 1.00× | | [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-crimson-web-factory-new) | 10.0% | $44.86 69.02 gems | 6.7% | 92 | 79.7 | 1.15× | | [Souvenir FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-famas-waters-of-nephthys-well-worn) | 10.0% | $36.99 56.9 gems | 5.5% | 70 | 79.7 | 0.88× | | [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Colony IV (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-colony-iv-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $21.59 33.22 gems | 3.2% | 82 | 79.7 | 1.03× | | [StatTrak (XM1014 \| Tranquility (Battle-Scarred) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-tranquility-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $15.48 23.81 gems | 2.3% | 80 | 79.7 | 1.00× | | [Souvenir Nova \| Sobek's Bite (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-sobeks-bite-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $8.09 12.45 gems | 2.4% | 149 | 159.4 | 0.93× | | [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-kiss-love-well-worn) | 20.0% | $2.54 3.91 gems | 0.8% | 160 | 159.4 | 1.00× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 12 Nov, 00:07 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) [JoeTubeOnKick](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/JoeTubeOnKick) $74.70 115 gems $897 1,380 gems 12.01x 2026-11-11 04:47 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) [Sleepy Jackalope](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Sleepy%20Jackalope) $74.70 115 gems $897 1,380 gems 12.01x 2026-11-10 19:20 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) Hidden $74.70 115 gems $897 1,380 gems 12.01x 2026-11-10 17:29 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) [Sensitive Young Man](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Sensitive%20Young%20Man) $74.70 115 gems $897 1,380 gems 12.01x 2026-11-09 21:28 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) Hidden $74.70 115 gems $897 1,380 gems 12.01x 2026-11-09 21:28 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) Hidden $74.70 115 gems $897 1,380 gems 12.01x 2026-11-09 21:25 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) Hidden $74.70 115 gems $897 1,380 gems 12.01x 2026-11-09 21:25 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) [Huh?](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Huh%3F) $74.70 115 gems $897 1,380 gems 12.01x 2026-11-09 06:04 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) Hidden $74.70 115 gems $897 1,380 gems 12.01x 2026-11-09 02:27 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) Hidden $74.70 115 gems $897 1,380 gems 12.01x 2026-11-09 02:26 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=10percent-mirage) [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $74.70 115 gems $44.86 69.02 gems 0.60x 2026-11-12 01:25 UTC [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-kiss-love-well-worn) Hidden $74.70 115 gems $2.54 3.91 gems 0.03x 2026-11-12 01:25 UTC [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $74.70 115 gems $44.86 69.02 gems 0.60x 2026-11-12 01:25 UTC [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $74.70 115 gems $44.86 69.02 gems 0.60x 2026-11-12 01:25 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $74.70 115 gems $560 861 gems 7.49x 2026-11-12 01:25 UTC [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-kiss-love-well-worn) [ich hab kleine d](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/ich%20hab%20kleine%20d) $74.70 115 gems $2.54 3.91 gems 0.03x 2026-11-12 01:25 UTC [Souvenir Galil AR | Cerberus (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-galil-ar-cerberus-factory-new) Hidden $74.70 115 gems $247 380 gems 3.31x 2026-11-12 00:52 UTC [Souvenir Nova | Sobek's Bite (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-sobeks-bite-minimal-wear) Hidden $74.70 115 gems $8.09 12.45 gems 0.11x 2026-11-12 00:52 UTC [Souvenir Nova | Sobek's Bite (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-sobeks-bite-minimal-wear) Hidden $74.70 115 gems $8.09 12.45 gems 0.11x 2026-11-12 00:52 UTC [StatTrak™ SG 553 | Colony IV (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-colony-iv-minimal-wear) Hidden $74.70 115 gems $21.59 33.22 gems 0.29x 2026-11-12 00:52 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $74.70 | 89.99% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 15.0% restricted 25.0% Mil Spec Grade 10.0% Classified 10.0% classified 30.0% other 10.0% best hit $897 (12.01x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt