--- title: "10% NOVA case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "10% NOVA ($0.31) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 88.41% over 2,412 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-nova rendered: 2026-11-11T17:39Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [10% NOVA](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-nova) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · 10% NOVA A case on Clash.gg, first seen 4 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-nova?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-nova?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-nova) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-nova?window=all) Price · $0.31 · 0.47 gems Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 88.41% · 2,412 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 90.23% ±11.07 1,930 openings 7 days · 88.29% ±9.82 2,406 openings 30 days · 88.41% ±9.81 2,412 openings since tracking started · 88.41% ±9.81 2,412 openings 78.0% 90.0% 102.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-nova?window=24h) | 1,930 | 90.23% ±11.1 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-nova?window=7d) | 2,406 | 88.29% ±9.82 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-nova) | 2,412 | 88.41% ±9.81 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/10percent-nova?window=all) | 2,412 | 88.41% ±9.81 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Clash.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=10percent-nova) [Nova | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.31 0.47 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:22 UTC [Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-red-quartz-factory-new) Hidden $0.31 0.47 gems $2.49 3.83 gems 8.15x 2026-11-11 16:22 UTC [Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-red-quartz-factory-new) Hidden $0.31 0.47 gems $2.49 3.83 gems 8.15x 2026-11-11 16:22 UTC [Nova | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-minimal-wear) [mausberg](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/mausberg) $0.31 0.47 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:22 UTC [Nova | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.31 0.47 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:22 UTC [Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-red-quartz-factory-new) Hidden $0.31 0.47 gems $2.49 3.83 gems 8.15x 2026-11-11 16:22 UTC [Nova | Windblown (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-windblown-factory-new) Hidden $0.31 0.47 gems $0.18 0.28 gems 0.60x 2026-11-11 16:22 UTC [Nova | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-minimal-wear) [mausberg](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/mausberg) $0.31 0.47 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:22 UTC [Nova | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.31 0.47 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:22 UTC [Nova | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.31 0.47 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:22 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.41 on average: an expected loss of $11.59 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt