--- title: "1% Knife case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "1% Knife ($1.24) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.76% from 3 items with odds, observed 91.92% over 72.8K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/1percent-knife rendered: 2026-11-11T18:36Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [1% Knife](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/1percent-knife) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · 1% Knife A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/1percent-knife?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/1percent-knife?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/1percent-knife) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/1percent-knife?window=all) Price · $1.24 · 1.91 gems Advertised RTP · 89.76% · EV $1.11 from 3 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.92% · 72.8K openings, odds method Variance · 78.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 93.33% ±13.45 16.6K openings 7 days · 91.99% ±6.75 66.1K openings 30 days · 91.92% ±6.43 72.8K openings since tracking started · 91.92% ±6.43 72.8K openings 79.0% 93.3% 107.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/1percent-knife?window=24h) | 16.6K | 93.33% ±13.5 | +0.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/1percent-knife?window=7d) | 66.1K | 91.99% ±6.75 | +0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/1percent-knife) | 72.8K | 91.92% ±6.43 | +0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/1percent-knife?window=all) | 72.8K | 91.92% ±6.43 | +0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 3 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 73.7K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $110 170 gems | 99.1% | 751 | 736.5 | 1.02× | | [P90 \| Sand Spray (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-well-worn) | 49.0% | $0.01 0.02 gems | 0.6% | 35,868 | 36090.1 | 0.99× | | [P250 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) | 50.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 gems | 0.3% | 37,035 | 36827.4 | 1.01× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Bowie Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) Hidden $1.24 1.91 gems $110 170 gems 88.98x 2026-11-11 18:36 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) Hidden $1.24 1.91 gems $110 170 gems 88.98x 2026-11-11 18:13 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) Hidden $1.24 1.91 gems $110 170 gems 88.98x 2026-11-11 17:59 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) Hidden $1.24 1.91 gems $110 170 gems 88.98x 2026-11-11 17:09 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) Hidden $1.24 1.91 gems $110 170 gems 88.98x 2026-11-11 17:09 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) Hidden $1.24 1.91 gems $110 170 gems 88.98x 2026-11-11 17:09 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) Hidden $1.24 1.91 gems $110 170 gems 88.98x 2026-11-11 15:46 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) [4\*\*\*™](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/4***%E2%84%A2-597890) $1.24 1.91 gems $110 170 gems 88.98x 2026-11-11 14:35 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) [4\*\*\*™](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/4***%E2%84%A2-597890) $1.24 1.91 gems $110 170 gems 88.98x 2026-11-11 14:35 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) [4\*\*\*™](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/4***%E2%84%A2-597890) $1.24 1.91 gems $110 170 gems 88.98x 2026-11-11 14:33 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=1percent-knife) [P90 | Sand Spray (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-well-worn) Hidden $1.24 1.91 gems $0.01 0.02 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:36 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $1.24 1.91 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:36 UTC [P90 | Sand Spray (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-well-worn) Hidden $1.24 1.91 gems $0.01 0.02 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:36 UTC [P90 | Sand Spray (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-well-worn) Hidden $1.24 1.91 gems $0.01 0.02 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:36 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $1.24 1.91 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:36 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) Hidden $1.24 1.91 gems $110 170 gems 88.98x 2026-11-11 18:36 UTC [P90 | Sand Spray (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-well-worn) Hidden $1.24 1.91 gems $0.01 0.02 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:27 UTC [P90 | Sand Spray (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-well-worn) Hidden $1.24 1.91 gems $0.01 0.02 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:27 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $1.24 1.91 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:27 UTC [P90 | Sand Spray (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-well-worn) Hidden $1.24 1.91 gems $0.01 0.02 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:27 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $1.24 | 89.76% | 3 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.0% consumer 99.0% best hit $110 (88.98x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.76 on average: an expected loss of $10.24 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt