--- title: "20% Baller case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "20% Baller ($756.42) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 5 items with odds, observed 66.50% over 181 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/20percent-baller rendered: 2026-11-11T20:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [20% Baller](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/20percent-baller) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · 20% Baller A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/20percent-baller?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/20percent-baller?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/20percent-baller) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/20percent-baller?window=all) Price · $756.42 · 1,164 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $680.78 from 5 items Observed RTP, 30d · 66.50% · 181 openings, odds method Variance · 3.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 12.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 48 openings · below min 7 days · 58.35% ±29.75 169 openings 30 days · 66.50% ±28.74 181 openings since tracking started · 66.50% ±28.74 181 openings -0.5% 49.0% 98.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/20percent-baller?window=24h) | 48 | 42.05% ±55.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/20percent-baller?window=7d) | 169 | 58.35% ±29.7 | −2.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/20percent-baller) | 181 | 66.50% ±28.7 | −1.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/20percent-baller?window=all) | 181 | 66.50% ±28.7 | −1.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 181 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $6,435 9,901 gems | 18.9% | 0 | 3.6 | 0.00× | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $5,281 8,125 gems | 23.3% | 6 | 5.4 | 1.10× | | [AWP \| The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $2,951 4,540 gems | 30.3% | 9 | 12.7 | 0.71× | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $2,281 3,509 gems | 26.8% | 14 | 14.5 | 0.97× | | [USP-S \| The Traitor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-battle-scarred) | 80.0% | $5.72 8.8 gems | 0.7% | 152 | 144.8 | 1.05× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) Hidden $756 1,164 gems $5,281 8,125 gems 6.98x 2026-11-10 14:16 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) Hidden $756 1,164 gems $5,281 8,125 gems 6.98x 2026-11-10 02:51 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) Hidden $756 1,164 gems $5,281 8,125 gems 6.98x 2026-11-07 06:09 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) Hidden $756 1,164 gems $5,281 8,125 gems 6.98x 2026-11-07 06:05 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) Hidden $756 1,164 gems $5,281 8,125 gems 6.98x 2026-11-06 21:56 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) Hidden $756 1,164 gems $5,281 8,125 gems 6.98x 2026-11-03 22:25 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) Hidden $756 1,164 gems $2,951 4,540 gems 3.90x 2026-11-11 00:28 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) Hidden $756 1,164 gems $2,951 4,540 gems 3.90x 2026-11-11 00:24 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) Hidden $756 1,164 gems $2,951 4,540 gems 3.90x 2026-11-09 00:21 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) [Mochi](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Mochi) $756 1,164 gems $2,951 4,540 gems 3.90x 2026-11-07 01:18 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=20percent-baller) [USP-S | The Traitor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-battle-scarred) Hidden $756 1,164 gems $5.72 8.8 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:56 UTC [USP-S | The Traitor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-battle-scarred) Hidden $756 1,164 gems $5.72 8.8 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:56 UTC [USP-S | The Traitor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-battle-scarred) Hidden $756 1,164 gems $5.72 8.8 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:56 UTC [USP-S | The Traitor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-battle-scarred) Hidden $756 1,164 gems $5.72 8.8 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:56 UTC [USP-S | The Traitor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-battle-scarred) Hidden $756 1,164 gems $5.72 8.8 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:56 UTC [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) [BOTAIRTXonKICK Refbot,ai 50kLBs](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/BOTAIRTXonKICK%20Refbot%2Cai%2050kLBs) $756 1,164 gems $2,281 3,509 gems 3.02x 2026-11-11 15:56 UTC [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) Hidden $756 1,164 gems $2,281 3,509 gems 3.02x 2026-11-11 00:33 UTC [USP-S | The Traitor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-battle-scarred) Hidden $756 1,164 gems $5.72 8.8 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 00:33 UTC [USP-S | The Traitor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-battle-scarred) Hidden $756 1,164 gems $5.72 8.8 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 00:33 UTC [USP-S | The Traitor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-battle-scarred) Hidden $756 1,164 gems $5.72 8.8 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 00:33 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $756 | 90.00% | 5 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 2.0% covert 98.0% best hit $5,281 (6.98x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt