--- title: "30% Knife case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "30% Knife ($154.72) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 87.52% over 744 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/30percent-knife rendered: 2026-11-11T18:55Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [30% Knife](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/30percent-knife) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · 30% Knife A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/30percent-knife?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/30percent-knife?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/30percent-knife) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/30percent-knife?window=all) Price · $154.72 · 238 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $139.25 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.52% · 744 openings, odds method Variance · 2.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 14.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 87.05% ±28.21 103 openings 7 days · 87.83% ±11.18 656 openings 30 days · 87.52% ±10.50 744 openings since tracking started · 87.52% ±10.50 744 openings 58.0% 87.0% 116.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/30percent-knife?window=24h) | 103 | 87.05% ±28.2 | −0.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/30percent-knife?window=7d) | 656 | 87.83% ±11.2 | −0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/30percent-knife) | 744 | 87.52% ±10.5 | −0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/30percent-knife?window=all) | 744 | 87.52% ±10.5 | −0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 746 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $789 1,213 gems | 17.0% | 17 | 22.4 | 0.76× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $640 985 gems | 13.8% | 13 | 22.4 | 0.58× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $509 783 gems | 14.6% | 28 | 29.8 | 0.94× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $421 647 gems | 12.1% | 26 | 29.8 | 0.87× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $400 615 gems | 14.4% | 44 | 37.3 | 1.18× | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $394 606 gems | 14.1% | 38 | 37.3 | 1.02× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $325 501 gems | 14.0% | 69 | 44.8 | 1.54× | | [P250 \| Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) | 70.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 gems | 0.0% | 511 | 522.2 | 0.98× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $155 238 gems $789 1,213 gems 5.10x 2026-11-10 19:39 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $155 238 gems $789 1,213 gems 5.10x 2026-11-10 19:04 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $155 238 gems $789 1,213 gems 5.10x 2026-11-10 19:03 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $155 238 gems $789 1,213 gems 5.10x 2026-11-09 04:00 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $155 238 gems $789 1,213 gems 5.10x 2026-11-08 17:48 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $155 238 gems $789 1,213 gems 5.10x 2026-11-08 12:09 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $155 238 gems $789 1,213 gems 5.10x 2026-11-08 05:53 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) [balright](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/balright) $155 238 gems $789 1,213 gems 5.10x 2026-11-08 05:49 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $155 238 gems $789 1,213 gems 5.10x 2026-11-07 19:57 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $155 238 gems $789 1,213 gems 5.10x 2026-11-06 23:08 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=30percent-knife) [P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) Hidden $155 238 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:48 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $155 238 gems $325 501 gems 2.10x 2026-11-11 18:48 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) Hidden $155 238 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:48 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) Hidden $155 238 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:48 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) Hidden $155 238 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:48 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) [BB $500 LB](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/BB%20%24500%20LB) $155 238 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:48 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) Hidden $155 238 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:58 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) Hidden $155 238 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:58 UTC [★ Nomad Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $155 238 gems $394 606 gems 2.54x 2026-11-11 12:58 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) Hidden $155 238 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:58 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $155 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Covert 3.0% sunny 14.0% covert 13.0% consumer 70.0% best hit $789 (5.10x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt