--- title: "5% Asiimov case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "5% Asiimov ($9.82) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 10 items with odds, observed 91.32% over 6,096 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/5percent-asiimov rendered: 2026-11-12T01:41Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [5% Asiimov](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/5percent-asiimov) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · 5% Asiimov A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/5percent-asiimov?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/5percent-asiimov?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/5percent-asiimov) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/5percent-asiimov?window=all) Price · $9.82 · 15.11 gems Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $8.84 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.32% · 6,096 openings, odds method Variance · 9.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 89.09% ±21.59 787 openings 7 days · 91.05% ±8.82 4,709 openings 30 days · 91.32% ±7.76 6,096 openings since tracking started · 91.32% ±7.76 6,096 openings 67.0% 89.3% 111.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/5percent-asiimov?window=24h) | 787 | 89.09% ±21.6 | −0.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/5percent-asiimov?window=7d) | 4,709 | 91.05% ±8.82 | +0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/5percent-asiimov) | 6,096 | 91.32% ±7.76 | +0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/5percent-asiimov?window=all) | 6,096 | 91.32% ±7.76 | +0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,135 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $257 396 gems | 29.1% | 55 | 61.4 | 0.90× | | [StatTrak™ P90 \| Asiimov (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $107 165 gems | 12.2% | 71 | 61.4 | 1.16× | | [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $102 158 gems | 11.6% | 64 | 61.4 | 1.04× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $87.95 135 gems | 10.0% | 82 | 61.4 | 1.34× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $52.44 80.68 gems | 5.9% | 54 | 61.4 | 0.88× | | [Sticker \| Magic Rush Ball (Lenticular) sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-magic-rush-ball-lenticular) | 10.0% | $8.59 13.22 gems | 9.7% | 592 | 613.5 | 0.96× | | [Sticker \| Old School (Lenticular) sticker · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-old-school-lenticular) | 20.0% | $3.01 4.63 gems | 6.8% | 1,219 | 1227.0 | 0.99× | | [Sticker \| Side Eyes (Lenticular) sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-side-eyes-lenticular) | 20.0% | $2.44 3.76 gems | 5.5% | 1,202 | 1227.0 | 0.98× | | [Sticker \| Econometer (Lenticular) sticker · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-econometer-lenticular) | 20.0% | $2.37 3.64 gems | 5.4% | 1,274 | 1227.0 | 1.04× | | [Sticker \| DJ Safecracker (Lenticular) sticker · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dj-safecracker-lenticular) | 25.0% | $1.36 2.09 gems | 3.8% | 1,522 | 1533.8 | 0.99× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 12 Nov, 00:07 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=5percent-asiimov) [Sticker | Side Eyes (Lenticular) sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-side-eyes-lenticular) Hidden $9.82 15.11 gems $2.44 3.76 gems 0.25x 2026-11-12 01:39 UTC [Sticker | Econometer (Lenticular) sticker · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-econometer-lenticular) Hidden $9.82 15.11 gems $2.37 3.64 gems 0.24x 2026-11-12 01:39 UTC [Sticker | Econometer (Lenticular) sticker · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-econometer-lenticular) Hidden $9.82 15.11 gems $2.37 3.64 gems 0.24x 2026-11-12 01:39 UTC [Sticker | DJ Safecracker (Lenticular) sticker · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dj-safecracker-lenticular) Hidden $9.82 15.11 gems $1.36 2.09 gems 0.14x 2026-11-12 01:39 UTC [Sticker | Old School (Lenticular) sticker · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-old-school-lenticular) Hidden $9.82 15.11 gems $3.01 4.63 gems 0.31x 2026-11-12 01:39 UTC [Sticker | DJ Safecracker (Lenticular) sticker · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dj-safecracker-lenticular) Hidden $9.82 15.11 gems $1.36 2.09 gems 0.14x 2026-11-12 01:39 UTC [Sticker | Econometer (Lenticular) sticker · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-econometer-lenticular) Hidden $9.82 15.11 gems $2.37 3.64 gems 0.24x 2026-11-12 01:37 UTC [Sticker | Side Eyes (Lenticular) sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-side-eyes-lenticular) Hidden $9.82 15.11 gems $2.44 3.76 gems 0.25x 2026-11-12 01:37 UTC [Sticker | DJ Safecracker (Lenticular) sticker · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dj-safecracker-lenticular) Hidden $9.82 15.11 gems $1.36 2.09 gems 0.14x 2026-11-12 01:37 UTC [Sticker | Magic Rush Ball (Lenticular) sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-magic-rush-ball-lenticular) Hidden $9.82 15.11 gems $8.59 13.22 gems 0.87x 2026-11-12 01:37 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $9.82 | 89.98% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed epic 1.0% #eb4b4b 1.0% covert 3.0% extraordinary 30.0% red 20.0% Ancient 45.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt