--- title: "5% Butterfly case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "5% Butterfly ($53.83) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 80.25% over 4,109 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/5percent-butterfly rendered: 2026-11-11T20:56Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [5% Butterfly](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/5percent-butterfly) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · 5% Butterfly A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/5percent-butterfly?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/5percent-butterfly?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/5percent-butterfly) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/5percent-butterfly?window=all) Price · $53.83 · 82.81 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $48.44 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 80.25% · 4,109 openings, odds method Variance · 16.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 74.67% ±36.32 467 openings 7 days · 76.28% ±13.53 3,366 openings 30 days · 80.25% ±12.24 4,109 openings since tracking started · 80.25% ±12.24 4,109 openings 37.5% 74.5% 111.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/5percent-butterfly?window=24h) | 467 | 74.67% ±36.3 | −0.8σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/5percent-butterfly?window=7d) | 3,366 | 76.28% ±13.5 | −2.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/5percent-butterfly) | 4,109 | 80.25% ±12.2 | −1.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/5percent-butterfly?window=all) | 4,109 | 80.25% ±12.2 | −1.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,209 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,415 2,177 gems | 29.2% | 37 | 42.1 | 0.88× | | [★ Butterfly Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife) | 1 in 100 | $1,029 1,582 gems | 21.2% | 29 | 42.1 | 0.69× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,024 1,576 gems | 21.1% | 35 | 42.1 | 0.83× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $805 1,238 gems | 16.6% | 53 | 42.1 | 1.26× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $349 537 gems | 7.2% | 36 | 42.1 | 0.86× | | [PP-Bizon \| Antique (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-antique-minimal-wear) | 45.0% | $4.70 7.23 gems | 4.4% | 1,911 | 1894.0 | 1.01× | | [PP-Bizon \| Runic (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-runic-well-worn) | 50.0% | $0.21 0.33 gems | 0.2% | 2,108 | 2104.5 | 1.00× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $53.83 82.81 gems $1,415 2,177 gems 26.29x 2026-11-11 04:32 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $53.83 82.81 gems $1,415 2,177 gems 26.29x 2026-11-11 00:28 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $53.83 82.81 gems $1,415 2,177 gems 26.29x 2026-11-10 20:25 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $53.83 82.81 gems $1,415 2,177 gems 26.29x 2026-11-10 20:19 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $53.83 82.81 gems $1,415 2,177 gems 26.29x 2026-11-10 16:14 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $53.83 82.81 gems $1,415 2,177 gems 26.29x 2026-11-10 04:24 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $53.83 82.81 gems $1,415 2,177 gems 26.29x 2026-11-10 00:45 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $53.83 82.81 gems $1,415 2,177 gems 26.29x 2026-11-10 00:35 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $53.83 82.81 gems $1,415 2,177 gems 26.29x 2026-11-09 21:21 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) [kick.com/alynnushgambles](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/kick.com%2Falynnushgambles) $53.83 82.81 gems $1,415 2,177 gems 26.29x 2026-11-09 17:57 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=5percent-butterfly) [PP-Bizon | Runic (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-runic-well-worn) Hidden $53.83 82.81 gems $0.21 0.33 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:41 UTC [PP-Bizon | Antique (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-antique-minimal-wear) Hidden $53.83 82.81 gems $4.70 7.23 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 20:41 UTC [PP-Bizon | Runic (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-runic-well-worn) Hidden $53.83 82.81 gems $0.21 0.33 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:41 UTC [PP-Bizon | Antique (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-antique-minimal-wear) [colin](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/colin) $53.83 82.81 gems $4.70 7.23 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 20:41 UTC [PP-Bizon | Runic (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-runic-well-worn) Hidden $53.83 82.81 gems $0.21 0.33 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:35 UTC [PP-Bizon | Runic (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-runic-well-worn) Hidden $53.83 82.81 gems $0.21 0.33 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:35 UTC [PP-Bizon | Runic (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-runic-well-worn) Hidden $53.83 82.81 gems $0.21 0.33 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:35 UTC [PP-Bizon | Antique (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-antique-minimal-wear) Hidden $53.83 82.81 gems $4.70 7.23 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 20:35 UTC [PP-Bizon | Runic (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-runic-well-worn) Hidden $53.83 82.81 gems $0.21 0.33 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:35 UTC [PP-Bizon | Runic (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-runic-well-worn) [VarsityGambles](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/VarsityGambles) $53.83 82.81 gems $0.21 0.33 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:35 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $53.83 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 4.0% gold 1.0% #8847ff 45.0% #4b69ff 50.0% best hit $1,415 (26.29x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt