--- title: "5% Rifler case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "5% Rifler ($23.73) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 7 items with odds, observed 83.83% over 7,687 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/5percent-riffler rendered: 2026-11-11T21:38Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [5% Rifler](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/5percent-riffler) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · 5% Rifler A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/5percent-riffler?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/5percent-riffler?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/5percent-riffler) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/5percent-riffler?window=all) Price · $23.73 · 36.51 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $21.36 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.83% · 7,687 openings, odds method Variance · 33.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 79.17% ±38.99 835 openings 7 days · 89.11% ±14.53 6,010 openings 30 days · 83.83% ±12.85 7,687 openings since tracking started · 83.83% ±12.85 7,687 openings 39.5% 79.3% 119.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/5percent-riffler?window=24h) | 835 | 79.17% ±39.0 | −0.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/5percent-riffler?window=7d) | 6,010 | 89.11% ±14.5 | −0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/5percent-riffler) | 7,687 | 83.83% ±12.8 | −0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/5percent-riffler?window=all) | 7,687 | 83.83% ±12.8 | −0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,807 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,599 2,460 gems | 37.4% | 33 | 39.0 | 0.85× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $796 1,225 gems | 18.6% | 33 | 39.0 | 0.85× | | [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $473 728 gems | 22.2% | 83 | 78.1 | 1.06× | | [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $247 381 gems | 11.6% | 86 | 78.1 | 1.10× | | [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $148 228 gems | 6.9% | 77 | 78.1 | 0.99× | | [Galil AR \| Aqua Terrace (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-aqua-terrace-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $61.11 94.01 gems | 2.9% | 61 | 78.1 | 0.78× | | [P250 \| Cyber Shell (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cyber-shell-field-tested) | 95.0% | $0.08 0.13 gems | 0.4% | 7,434 | 7416.7 | 1.00× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $23.73 36.51 gems $1,599 2,460 gems 67.37x 2026-11-11 11:17 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $23.73 36.51 gems $1,599 2,460 gems 67.37x 2026-11-11 01:09 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $23.73 36.51 gems $1,599 2,460 gems 67.37x 2026-11-10 20:56 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $23.73 36.51 gems $1,599 2,460 gems 67.37x 2026-11-10 14:04 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $23.73 36.51 gems $1,599 2,460 gems 67.37x 2026-11-10 13:20 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $23.73 36.51 gems $1,599 2,460 gems 67.37x 2026-11-10 08:05 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $23.73 36.51 gems $1,599 2,460 gems 67.37x 2026-11-10 08:05 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $23.73 36.51 gems $1,599 2,460 gems 67.37x 2026-11-10 03:41 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $23.73 36.51 gems $1,599 2,460 gems 67.37x 2026-11-09 22:51 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $23.73 36.51 gems $1,599 2,460 gems 67.37x 2026-11-08 17:42 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=5percent-riffler) [P250 | Cyber Shell (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cyber-shell-field-tested) Hidden $23.73 36.51 gems $0.08 0.13 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC [P250 | Cyber Shell (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cyber-shell-field-tested) Hidden $23.73 36.51 gems $0.08 0.13 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC [P250 | Cyber Shell (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cyber-shell-field-tested) Hidden $23.73 36.51 gems $0.08 0.13 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC [P250 | Cyber Shell (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cyber-shell-field-tested) Hidden $23.73 36.51 gems $0.08 0.13 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC [P250 | Cyber Shell (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cyber-shell-field-tested) Hidden $23.73 36.51 gems $0.08 0.13 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC [P250 | Cyber Shell (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cyber-shell-field-tested) [elfanta](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/elfanta) $23.73 36.51 gems $0.08 0.13 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC [P250 | Cyber Shell (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cyber-shell-field-tested) Hidden $23.73 36.51 gems $0.08 0.13 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:54 UTC [P250 | Cyber Shell (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cyber-shell-field-tested) Hidden $23.73 36.51 gems $0.08 0.13 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:54 UTC [P250 | Cyber Shell (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cyber-shell-field-tested) Hidden $23.73 36.51 gems $0.08 0.13 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:54 UTC [P250 | Cyber Shell (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cyber-shell-field-tested) Hidden $23.73 36.51 gems $0.08 0.13 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:54 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $23.73 | 89.99% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 1.5% covert 1.5% Covert 1.0% mil spec 1.0% #8847ff 95.0% best hit $1,599 (67.37x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt