--- title: "A4 case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "A4 ($28.36) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds, observed 106.40% over 3,800 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/a4 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [A4](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/a4) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · A4 A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/a4?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/a4?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/a4) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/a4?window=all) Price · $28.36 · 43.63 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $25.52 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 106.40% · 3,800 openings, odds method Variance · 176.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 500 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 97.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 298 openings · below min 7 days · 88.46% ±45.45 3,286 openings 30 days · 106.40% ±42.27 3,800 openings since tracking started · 106.40% ±42.27 3,800 openings -0.5% 105.8% 212.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/a4?window=24h) | 298 | 60.46% ±150.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/a4?window=7d) | 3,286 | 88.46% ±45.5 | −0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/a4) | 3,800 | 106.40% ±42.3 | +0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/a4?window=all) | 3,800 | 106.40% ±42.3 | +0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,884 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $8,303 12,774 gems | 65.1% | 9 | 7.8 | 1.16× | | [Souvenir M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-eye-of-horus-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $1,288 1,981 gems | 10.1% | 9 | 7.8 | 1.16× | | [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $672 1,034 gems | 5.3% | 12 | 7.8 | 1.54× | | [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $376 578 gems | 2.9% | 11 | 7.8 | 1.42× | | [M4A4 \| Daybreak (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-daybreak-battle-scarred) | 1 in 500 | $256 394 gems | 2.0% | 7 | 7.8 | 0.90× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-emperor-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $192 296 gems | 3.8% | 18 | 19.4 | 0.93× | | [M4A4 \| Tornado (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tornado-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $99.94 154 gems | 2.0% | 20 | 19.4 | 1.03× | | [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $76.35 117 gems | 1.5% | 26 | 19.4 | 1.34× | | [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $46.44 71.44 gems | 0.9% | 17 | 19.4 | 0.88× | | [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-factory-new) | 17.0% | $5.02 7.73 gems | 3.3% | 630 | 660.3 | 0.95× | | [M4A4 \| Griffin (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-factory-new) | 30.0% | $2.44 3.75 gems | 2.9% | 1,158 | 1165.2 | 0.99× | | [M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-factory-new) | 50.0% | $0.15 0.23 gems | 0.3% | 1,967 | 1942.0 | 1.01× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $28.36 43.63 gems $8,303 12,774 gems 292.8x 2026-11-09 13:00 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $28.36 43.63 gems $8,303 12,774 gems 292.8x 2026-11-08 00:38 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $28.36 43.63 gems $8,303 12,774 gems 292.8x 2026-11-07 22:35 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $28.36 43.63 gems $8,303 12,774 gems 292.8x 2026-11-05 04:54 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $28.36 43.63 gems $8,303 12,774 gems 292.8x 2026-11-05 01:48 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $28.36 43.63 gems $8,303 12,774 gems 292.8x 2026-11-04 18:01 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $28.36 43.63 gems $8,303 12,774 gems 292.8x 2026-11-03 19:26 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $28.36 43.63 gems $8,303 12,774 gems 292.8x 2026-11-03 17:35 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) [Turker Bin-Carlstan](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Turker%20Bin-Carlstan) $28.36 43.63 gems $8,303 12,774 gems 292.8x 2026-11-03 02:42 UTC [Souvenir M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-eye-of-horus-factory-new) Hidden $28.36 43.63 gems $1,288 1,981 gems 45.40x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=a4) [M4A4 | Poly Mag (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-factory-new) Hidden $28.36 43.63 gems $0.15 0.23 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC [Souvenir M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-eye-of-horus-factory-new) Hidden $28.36 43.63 gems $1,288 1,981 gems 45.40x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC [M4A4 | Poly Mag (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-factory-new) Hidden $28.36 43.63 gems $0.15 0.23 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC [M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-factory-new) Hidden $28.36 43.63 gems $2.44 3.75 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC [M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-factory-new) Hidden $28.36 43.63 gems $5.02 7.73 gems 0.18x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC [M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-factory-new) [☦︎Theta](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/%E2%98%A6%EF%B8%8ETheta) $28.36 43.63 gems $5.02 7.73 gems 0.18x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC [M4A4 | Poly Mag (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-factory-new) Hidden $28.36 43.63 gems $0.15 0.23 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC [M4A4 | Poly Mag (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-factory-new) Hidden $28.36 43.63 gems $0.15 0.23 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC [M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-factory-new) Hidden $28.36 43.63 gems $2.44 3.75 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC [M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-factory-new) Hidden $28.36 43.63 gems $2.44 3.75 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $28.36 | 90.00% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed contraband 0.2% covert 18.7% classified 0.2% mil spec 0.2% restricted 30.2% industrial 0.5% milspec 50.0% best hit $8,303 (292.8x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt