--- title: "Amazon case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Amazon ($404.52) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 5 items with odds, observed 75.54% over 75 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/amazon rendered: 2026-11-12T01:14Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Amazon](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/amazon) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Amazon A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/amazon?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/amazon?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/amazon) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/amazon?window=all) Price · $404.52 · 622 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $364.07 from 5 items Observed RTP, 30d · 75.54% · 75 openings, odds method Variance · 2.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 15.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 54 openings · below min 30 days · 75 openings · below min since tracking started · 75 openings · below min 42.0% 86.0% 130.0% **Small sample.** 75 openings and 11.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/amazon?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/amazon?window=7d) | 54 | 90.32% ±39.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/amazon) | 75 | 75.54% ±33.1 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/amazon?window=all) | 75 | 75.54% ±33.1 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 75 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) | 15.0% | $1,649 2,538 gems | 68.0% | 11 | 11.2 | 0.98× | | [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Snakebite (Factory New) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-snakebite-factory-new) | 15.0% | $700 1,078 gems | 28.9% | 6 | 11.2 | 0.53× | | [MAC-10 \| Hot Snakes (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-hot-snakes-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $132 203 gems | 1.8% | 1 | 3.7 | 0.27× | | [XM1014 \| Incinegator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-incinegator-field-tested) | 30.0% | $8.55 13.15 gems | 0.7% | 28 | 22.5 | 1.24× | | [P250 \| See Ya Later (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-factory-new) | 35.0% | $6.86 10.56 gems | 0.7% | 29 | 26.3 | 1.10× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 12 Nov, 00:07 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) Hidden $405 622 gems $1,649 2,538 gems 4.08x 2026-11-08 18:54 UTC [M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) Hidden $405 622 gems $1,649 2,538 gems 4.08x 2026-11-08 18:54 UTC [M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) Hidden $405 622 gems $1,649 2,538 gems 4.08x 2026-11-08 18:54 UTC [M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) [JackedGambles](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/JackedGambles) $405 622 gems $1,649 2,538 gems 4.08x 2026-11-08 18:53 UTC [M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) Hidden $405 622 gems $1,649 2,538 gems 4.08x 2026-11-08 18:53 UTC [M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) [Sieras](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Sieras) $405 622 gems $1,649 2,538 gems 4.08x 2026-11-08 02:02 UTC [M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) [clepto holding](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/clepto%20holding) $405 622 gems $1,649 2,538 gems 4.08x 2026-11-07 20:17 UTC [M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) Hidden $405 622 gems $1,649 2,538 gems 4.08x 2026-11-05 06:34 UTC [M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) Hidden $405 622 gems $1,649 2,538 gems 4.08x 2026-11-05 06:34 UTC [M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) Hidden $405 622 gems $1,649 2,538 gems 4.08x 2026-11-05 06:34 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=amazon) [P250 | See Ya Later (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-factory-new) Hidden $405 622 gems $6.86 10.56 gems 0.02x 2026-11-09 22:07 UTC [P250 | See Ya Later (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-factory-new) Hidden $405 622 gems $6.86 10.56 gems 0.02x 2026-11-09 22:07 UTC [XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-incinegator-field-tested) Hidden $405 622 gems $8.55 13.15 gems 0.02x 2026-11-09 22:07 UTC [P250 | See Ya Later (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-factory-new) Hidden $405 622 gems $6.86 10.56 gems 0.02x 2026-11-08 18:54 UTC [XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-incinegator-field-tested) Hidden $405 622 gems $8.55 13.15 gems 0.02x 2026-11-08 18:54 UTC [M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) Hidden $405 622 gems $1,649 2,538 gems 4.08x 2026-11-08 18:54 UTC [M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) Hidden $405 622 gems $1,649 2,538 gems 4.08x 2026-11-08 18:54 UTC [P250 | See Ya Later (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-factory-new) Hidden $405 622 gems $6.86 10.56 gems 0.02x 2026-11-08 18:54 UTC [MAC-10 | Hot Snakes (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-hot-snakes-factory-new) [JackedGambles](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/JackedGambles) $405 622 gems $132 203 gems 0.33x 2026-11-08 18:54 UTC [XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-incinegator-field-tested) Hidden $405 622 gems $8.55 13.15 gems 0.02x 2026-11-08 18:54 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $405 | 90.00% | 5 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 15.0% Extraordinary 15.0% classified 35.0% covert 35.0% best hit $1,649 (4.08x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt