--- title: "Arcade case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Arcade ($8.11) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.97% from 8 items with odds, observed 94.54% over 3,675 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/arcade rendered: 2026-11-11T14:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Arcade](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/arcade) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Arcade A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/arcade?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/arcade?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/arcade) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/arcade?window=all) Price · $8.11 · 12.47 gems Advertised RTP · 89.97% · EV $7.29 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 94.54% · 3,675 openings, odds method Variance · 5.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 82.06% ±21.23 455 openings 7 days · 95.05% ±7.86 3,321 openings 30 days · 94.54% ±7.47 3,675 openings since tracking started · 94.54% ±7.47 3,675 openings 60.0% 82.0% 104.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/arcade?window=24h) | 455 | 82.06% ±21.2 | −0.7σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/arcade?window=7d) | 3,321 | 95.05% ±7.86 | +1.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/arcade) | 3,675 | 94.54% ±7.47 | +1.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/arcade?window=all) | 3,675 | 94.54% ±7.47 | +1.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,733 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-big-game-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $125 192 gems | 34.2% | 83 | 74.7 | 1.11× | | [AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $40.05 61.61 gems | 16.5% | 123 | 112.0 | 1.10× | | [MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-factory-new) | 10.0% | $19.48 29.97 gems | 26.7% | 362 | 373.3 | 0.97× | | [MAC-10 \| Toybox (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-toybox-factory-new) | 10.0% | $6.58 10.13 gems | 9.0% | 380 | 373.3 | 1.02× | | [P2000 \| Space Race (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-space-race-factory-new) | 15.0% | $2.30 3.54 gems | 4.7% | 560 | 559.9 | 1.00× | | [Five-SeveN \| Retrobution (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-retrobution-factory-new) | 15.0% | $1.65 2.54 gems | 3.4% | 541 | 559.9 | 0.97× | | [Nova \| Toy Soldier (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-factory-new) | 15.0% | $1.35 2.07 gems | 2.8% | 577 | 559.9 | 1.03× | | [MAC-10 \| Button Masher (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-button-masher-factory-new) | 30.0% | $0.64 0.99 gems | 2.6% | 1,107 | 1119.9 | 0.99× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=arcade) [P2000 | Space Race (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-space-race-factory-new) Hidden $8.11 12.47 gems $2.30 3.54 gems 0.28x 2026-11-11 14:19 UTC [MAC-10 | Button Masher (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-button-masher-factory-new) Hidden $8.11 12.47 gems $0.64 0.99 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 14:19 UTC [MAC-10 | Button Masher (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-button-masher-factory-new) [KurwaChomik ツ](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/KurwaChomik%20%E3%83%84) $8.11 12.47 gems $0.64 0.99 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 14:19 UTC [Nova | Toy Soldier (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-factory-new) Hidden $8.11 12.47 gems $1.35 2.07 gems 0.17x 2026-11-11 14:16 UTC [MAC-10 | Button Masher (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-button-masher-factory-new) Hidden $8.11 12.47 gems $0.64 0.99 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 14:16 UTC [MAC-10 | Button Masher (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-button-masher-factory-new) Hidden $8.11 12.47 gems $0.64 0.99 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 14:16 UTC [MAC-10 | Button Masher (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-button-masher-factory-new) Hidden $8.11 12.47 gems $0.64 0.99 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 14:16 UTC [Five-SeveN | Retrobution (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-retrobution-factory-new) Hidden $8.11 12.47 gems $1.65 2.54 gems 0.20x 2026-11-11 14:16 UTC [MAC-10 | Button Masher (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-button-masher-factory-new) [zeus](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/zeus) $8.11 12.47 gems $0.64 0.99 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 14:16 UTC [Nova | Toy Soldier (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-factory-new) Hidden $8.11 12.47 gems $1.35 2.07 gems 0.17x 2026-11-11 14:16 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $8.11 | 89.97% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 2.0% classified 13.0% red 10.0% restricted 45.0% #8847ff 30.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.97 on average: an expected loss of $10.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt