--- title: "Ascension Case case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Ascension Case ($76.09) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 11 items with odds, observed 100.20% over 193 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/ascension-case rendered: 2026-11-11T18:47Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Ascension Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/ascension-case) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Ascension Case A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/ascension-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/ascension-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/ascension-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/ascension-case?window=all) Price · $76.09 · 117 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $68.48 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 100.20% · 193 openings, odds method Variance · 4.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 86.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 16 openings · below min 7 days · 98.93% ±30.63 175 openings 30 days · 100.20% ±29.17 193 openings since tracking started · 100.20% ±29.17 193 openings 67.5% 178.0% 288.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/ascension-case?window=24h) | 16 | 186.48% ±101.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/ascension-case?window=7d) | 175 | 98.93% ±30.6 | +0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/ascension-case) | 193 | 100.20% ±29.2 | +0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/ascension-case?window=all) | 193 | 100.20% ±29.2 | +0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 193 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $1,820 2,800 gems | 6.6% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Foundation (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-foundation-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,040 1,600 gems | 7.6% | 1 | 1.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $870 1,339 gems | 6.4% | 1 | 1.0 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $619 953 gems | 11.3% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.41× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-big-game-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $438 674 gems | 9.6% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.38× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Diamondback (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-diamondback-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $307 473 gems | 9.0% | 5 | 3.9 | 1.30× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Red Racer (Minimal Wear) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-red-racer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $185 285 gems | 8.1% | 9 | 5.8 | 1.55× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Lt. Commander (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-lt-commander-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $108 166 gems | 7.9% | 9 | 9.7 | 0.93× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $71.50 110 gems | 5.2% | 11 | 9.7 | 1.14× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Giraffe (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-giraffe-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $47.59 73.21 gems | 6.9% | 20 | 19.3 | 1.04× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Transport (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-transport-field-tested) | 71.0% | $20.60 31.69 gems | 21.4% | 131 | 137.0 | 0.96× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-factory-new) Hidden $76.09 117 gems $1,820 2,800 gems 23.92x 2026-11-10 21:30 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Foundation (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-foundation-factory-new) Hidden $76.09 117 gems $1,040 1,600 gems 13.67x 2026-11-09 01:22 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Omega (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-factory-new) Hidden $76.09 117 gems $870 1,339 gems 11.44x 2026-11-05 23:33 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-factory-new) Hidden $76.09 117 gems $619 953 gems 8.14x 2026-11-07 23:36 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=ascension-case) [★ Hand Wraps | Giraffe (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-giraffe-minimal-wear) Hidden $76.09 117 gems $47.59 73.21 gems 0.63x 2026-11-11 16:48 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Transport (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-transport-field-tested) Hidden $76.09 117 gems $20.60 31.69 gems 0.27x 2026-11-11 16:48 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Transport (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-transport-field-tested) Hidden $76.09 117 gems $20.60 31.69 gems 0.27x 2026-11-11 16:48 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Transport (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-transport-field-tested) Hidden $76.09 117 gems $20.60 31.69 gems 0.27x 2026-11-11 16:48 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Transport (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-transport-field-tested) Hidden $76.09 117 gems $20.60 31.69 gems 0.27x 2026-11-11 16:48 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Transport (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-transport-field-tested) [Crown](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Crown) $76.09 117 gems $20.60 31.69 gems 0.27x 2026-11-11 16:48 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Transport (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-transport-field-tested) Hidden $76.09 117 gems $20.60 31.69 gems 0.27x 2026-11-11 16:42 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Transport (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-transport-field-tested) Hidden $76.09 117 gems $20.60 31.69 gems 0.27x 2026-11-11 16:42 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | Giraffe (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-giraffe-minimal-wear) [farlopero peek](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/farlopero%20peek) $76.09 117 gems $47.59 73.21 gems 0.63x 2026-11-11 16:42 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Transport (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-transport-field-tested) Hidden $76.09 117 gems $20.60 31.69 gems 0.27x 2026-11-11 16:42 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $76.09 | 90.00% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 97.0% legendary 3.0% best hit $1,820 (23.92x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt