--- title: "Ashen Crown case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Ashen Crown ($43.11) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 11 items with odds, observed 93.35% over 300 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/ashen-crown rendered: 2026-11-11T17:58Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Ashen Crown](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/ashen-crown) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Ashen Crown A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/ashen-crown?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/ashen-crown?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/ashen-crown) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/ashen-crown?window=all) Price · $43.11 · 66.32 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $38.79 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.35% · 300 openings, odds method Variance · 5.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 34 openings · below min 7 days · 74.26% ±29.17 233 openings 30 days · 93.35% ±25.70 300 openings since tracking started · 93.35% ±25.70 300 openings -0.5% 60.5% 121.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/ashen-crown?window=24h) | 34 | 44.37% ±76.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/ashen-crown?window=7d) | 233 | 74.26% ±29.2 | −1.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/ashen-crown) | 300 | 93.35% ±25.7 | +0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/ashen-crown?window=all) | 300 | 93.35% ±25.7 | +0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 300 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir M4A4 \| Falak (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-falak-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $580 893 gems | 29.9% | 7 | 6.0 | 1.17× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-smoke-out-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $393 605 gems | 20.3% | 6 | 6.0 | 1.00× | | [AWP \| CMYK (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-cmyk-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $164 252 gems | 8.4% | 5 | 6.0 | 0.83× | | [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $103 159 gems | 5.3% | 4 | 6.0 | 0.67× | | [AWP \| Graphite (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $87.75 135 gems | 4.5% | 6 | 6.0 | 1.00× | | [Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-factory-new) | 10.0% | $47.06 72.4 gems | 12.1% | 28 | 30.0 | 0.93× | | [G3SG1 \| Violet Murano (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-violet-murano-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $29.59 45.53 gems | 7.6% | 41 | 30.0 | 1.37× | | [UMP-45 \| Fallout Warning (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fallout-warning-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $17.28 26.58 gems | 4.5% | 31 | 30.0 | 1.03× | | [P90 \| Virus (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-virus-factory-new) | 10.0% | $11.04 16.99 gems | 2.8% | 26 | 30.0 | 0.87× | | [PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-well-worn) | 10.0% | $6.21 9.56 gems | 1.6% | 39 | 30.0 | 1.30× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-factory-new) | 40.0% | $2.76 4.24 gems | 2.8% | 107 | 120.0 | 0.89× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Souvenir M4A4 | Falak (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-falak-factory-new) Hidden $43.11 66.32 gems $580 893 gems 13.47x 2026-11-09 23:12 UTC [Souvenir M4A4 | Falak (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-falak-factory-new) Hidden $43.11 66.32 gems $580 893 gems 13.47x 2026-11-09 14:26 UTC [Souvenir M4A4 | Falak (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-falak-factory-new) Hidden $43.11 66.32 gems $580 893 gems 13.47x 2026-11-07 12:55 UTC [Souvenir M4A4 | Falak (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-falak-factory-new) Hidden $43.11 66.32 gems $580 893 gems 13.47x 2026-11-05 22:40 UTC [Souvenir M4A4 | Falak (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-falak-factory-new) Hidden $43.11 66.32 gems $580 893 gems 13.47x 2026-11-04 17:18 UTC [Souvenir M4A4 | Falak (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-falak-factory-new) Hidden $43.11 66.32 gems $580 893 gems 13.47x 2026-11-04 17:13 UTC [Souvenir M4A4 | Falak (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-falak-factory-new) Hidden $43.11 66.32 gems $580 893 gems 13.47x 2026-11-03 19:49 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=ashen-crown) [CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-factory-new) Hidden $43.11 66.32 gems $2.76 4.24 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 17:57 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-factory-new) Hidden $43.11 66.32 gems $2.76 4.24 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 17:57 UTC [AWP | CMYK (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-cmyk-minimal-wear) Hidden $43.11 66.32 gems $164 252 gems 3.80x 2026-11-11 17:57 UTC [Galil AR | CAUTION! (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-factory-new) [Valentinobond](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Valentinobond) $43.11 66.32 gems $47.06 72.4 gems 1.09x 2026-11-11 17:57 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-factory-new) Hidden $43.11 66.32 gems $2.76 4.24 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 16:50 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-factory-new) Hidden $43.11 66.32 gems $2.76 4.24 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 16:50 UTC [PP-Bizon | High Roller (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-well-worn) Hidden $43.11 66.32 gems $6.21 9.56 gems 0.14x 2026-11-11 16:50 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-factory-new) Hidden $43.11 66.32 gems $2.76 4.24 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 16:50 UTC [UMP-45 | Fallout Warning (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fallout-warning-minimal-wear) Hidden $43.11 66.32 gems $17.28 26.58 gems 0.40x 2026-11-11 16:50 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-factory-new) Hidden $43.11 66.32 gems $2.76 4.24 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 16:50 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $43.11 | 89.99% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 2.0% extraordinary 2.0% covert 2.0% pink 2.0% classified 2.0% restricted 50.0% mil spec 10.0% industrial 10.0% violet 10.0% #d32ee6 10.0% best hit $580 (13.47x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt